Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 27

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Tarczynski Arena (Wrocław)

Referee: Kochanek M. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV


	Śląsk Wrocław		Motor Lublin

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.9	4.75	Watch
	2	3.5	3.5
	1.72	3.9	4.3
	1.68	4.03	4.81	Watch
	2	3.3	3.4
	1.68	3.93	4.79	Watch
	1.72	3.9	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (2.02)	3.78 ↑ (3.53)	4.26 ↑ (3.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Śląsk Wrocław
52.9%

Draw
24.9%

Motor Lublin
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

26.6%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47%

26.9%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Śląsk Wrocław has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Śląsk Wrocław's performance.

Motor Lublin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Śląsk Wrocław than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Śląsk Wrocław that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Motor Lublin than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	0%	15.4%

Śląsk Wrocław - Motor Lublin Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Śląsk (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Śląsk (2.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Śląsk Wrocław will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Śląsk Wrocław will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Śląsk (votes: 8 - 80%). Motor (votes: 2 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Leszczynski R. (G) 78. Guercio T. 3. Szota S. 33. Matsenko Y. 28. Marc L. B. 21. Baluta T. 17. Schwarz P. (C) 7. Samiec-Talar P. 8. Pozo J. 19. Ortiz A. 9. Al Hamlawi A.	1. Rosa K. (G) 17. Wojcik F. 18. Najemski A. 42. Ede B. 24. Luberecki F. 21. Labojko J. 26. Krol M. 68. Wolski B. (C) 22. Simon C. 19. Van Hoeven B. 90. Mraz S.
Substitutes
6. Gerstenstein L. 26. Ince B. 23. Jasper S. 13. Kurowski K. 1. Loska T. (G) 39. Rygiel S. 18. Schierack S. 24. Sharabura Y. 25. Udahl H.	39. Bartos M. 11. Caliskaner K. 77. Ceglarz P. 30. Ndiaye M. J. 47. Palacz K. 6. Samper S. 37. Scalet M. 28. Stolarski P. 33. Tratnik G. (G)
Coaches
Simundza A.	Stolarski M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Ortiz A. ⚽, Samiec-Talar P. (A),
45+2', Guercio T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', Simon C. ↓, Scalet M. ↑,
59', Labojko J. ↓, Samper S. ↑,
62', Samiec-Talar P. ↓, Ince B. ↑,
69', Krol M. ↓, Ndiaye M. J. ↑,
76', 1 - 1, Ndiaye M. J. ⚽,
79', Samper S. 🟨,
81', Pozo J. ↓, Jasper S. ↑,
81', Al Hamlawi A. ↓, Udahl H. ↑,
85', Van Hoeven B. ↓, Ceglarz P. ↑,
85', Wojcik F. ↓, Stolarski P. ↑,
90+5', Matsenko Y. ↓, Rygiel S. ↑,
90+6', Szota S. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 8).

Recent matches Śląsk is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Motor is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Śląsk will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Śląsk: Cebula M. (Knee Injury) Gerstenstein L. (Injury) Paluszek A. (Ankle Injury) Petkov A. (Yellow Cards) Pokorny P. (Injury) Swierczok J. (Knee Injury) Zukowski M. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Motor: Brkic I. (Knee Injury) Kruk K. (Knee Injury) Tratnik G. (Inactive)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Śląsk won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Śląsk Wrocław
Polish Ekstraklasa
29.03.25	Śląsk Wrocław - Lech Poznań	3:1 ✺
15.03.25	Stal Mielec - Śląsk Wrocław	1:4 ✺
07.03.25	Śląsk Wrocław - Pogoń Szczecin	1:1 ✺
02.03.25	Legia Warsaw - Śląsk Wrocław	3:1 ✺
22.02.25	Korona Kielce - Śląsk Wrocław	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWTLL
- Motor Lublin
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.03.25	Motor Lublin - Stal Mielec	4:1 ✺
15.03.25	Górnik Zabrze - Motor Lublin	4:0 ✺
10.03.25	Motor Lublin - Legia Warsaw	3:3 ✺
02.03.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Motor Lublin	0:1 ✺
24.02.25	Motor Lublin - GKS Katowice	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
28.09.24	Motor Lublin - Śląsk Wrocław	2:1

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