Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 4

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Motor Lublin Arena (Lublin)

Referee: Gryckiewicz P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Croatia	Arena Sport 3
Czech-republic	Sporty TV
Germany	Laola1
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Motor Lublin		GKS Katowice

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.5	2.6	Watch
	2.30	3.60	2.75
	2.32	3.4	2.72
	2.42	3.62	2.97
	2.39	3.6	2.84	Watch
	2.3	3.5	2.9
	2.33	3.44	2.83	Watch
	2.34	3.5	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↓ (2.61)	3.52 ↑ (3.47)	2.79 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Motor Lublin
39.9%

Draw
26.6%

GKS Katowice
33.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

26.7%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

26.2%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Motor Lublin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

GKS Katowice has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Motor Lublin than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for GKS Katowice than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Motor Lublin - GKS Katowice Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Motor will win (votes: 2 - 50%). GKS Katowice will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Motor (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Popa M. (G) 29. Santos T. 18. Bereszynski B. 39. Bartos M. 24. Luberecki F. 27. Bourhane Y. 30. Ndiaye M. 8. Kikis 6. Legowski M. 11. Fabio Ronaldo 10. Czubak K. (C)	87. Kobylak G. (G) 30. Czerwinski A. 4. Jedrych A. (C) 6. Klemenz L. 97. Jirka E. 19. Lukasiak K. 68. Wolski B. 7. Wdowiak M. 10. Wedrychowski M. 17. Shkurin I. 27. Nowak B.
Substitutes
70. Aiko M. 5. Akatov A. 13. Brzozowski K. 90. Gregorski D. 23. Haxha F. 16. Lewandowski F. 17. Lukoszek K. 2. Meyer P. 4. Plavotic T. 7. Rodrigues I. 19. Szymanek K. 33. Tratnik G. (G)	31. Bartlewicz S. 5. Bosch J. 8. Galan B. 1. Kikolski M. (G) 21. Kokosinski J. 77. Kowalczyk M. 15. Markovic E. 22. Milewski S. 14. Olsen M. 55. Resta P. 23. Wasielewski M.
Coaches
Misiura M.	Gorak R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+3', Wedrychowski M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Wedrychowski M. ↓, Bartlewicz S. ↑,
46', Czerwinski A. ↓, Resta P. ↑,
64', Kikis 🟨,
66', Fabio Ronaldo ↓, Aiko M. ↑,
67', Bereszynski B. 🟨,
71', Wdowiak M. ↓, Galan B. ↑,
71', Jirka E. ↓, Wasielewski M. ↑,
78', Santos T. ↓, Lukoszek K. ↑,
86', 1 - 0, Czubak K. ⚽, Ndiaye M. (A),
89', Nowak B. ↓, Markovic E. ↑,
90+3', Ndiaye M. ↓, Haxha F. ↑,
90+3', Legowski M. ↓, Meyer P. ↑,
90+3', Czubak K. ↓, Gregorski D. ↑,
90+6', Bartos M. 🟨,
90+6', Klemenz L. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Motor won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Motor may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Motor: Rodrigues I. (Inactive)

There will not play in GKS Katowice: Paluszek A. (Knee Injury) Rasak D. (Knee Injury) Straczek R. (Surgery)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Motor won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:16. (average 1.4:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Motor won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:9. (average 2:2.3).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

GKS Katowice: 2.33% Motor Lublin: 0.41%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	GKS Katowice	9	5	0	4	20:14	6	15
16	Motor Lublin	9	1	3	5	9:15	-6	6

Last Results with these Odds

Motor Lublin - the odds 2.61 are the expected chance of winning is 35.47%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

GKS Katowice - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 37.79%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Motor Lublin
Polish Ekstraklasa
08.08.26	Pogoń Szczecin - Motor Lublin	3:1 ✺
31.07.26	Motor Lublin - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:2 ✺
26.07.26	Widzew Łódź - Motor Lublin	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
03.07.26	Motor Lublin - Warta Poznań	4:1 ✺
27.06.26	Motor Lublin - FC Dinamo Bucureşti	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LLTWW
- GKS Katowice
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.08.26	GKS Katowice - Hapoel Tel Aviv	2:1 ✺
06.08.26	Hapoel Tel Aviv - GKS Katowice	2:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
02.08.26	GKS Katowice - Radomiak Radom	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	GKS Katowice - Žilina	3:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.07.26	Wisła Kraków - GKS Katowice	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
17.04.26	GKS Katowice - Motor Lublin	3:2
17.10.25	Motor Lublin - GKS Katowice	2:5
24.02.25	Motor Lublin - GKS Katowice	3:2
16.08.24	GKS Katowice - Motor Lublin	0:0
Polish Division 1
19.02.24	GKS Katowice - Motor Lublin	2:0
06.08.23	Motor Lublin - GKS Katowice	1:1
Polish Division 2
19.05.21	Motor Lublin - GKS Katowice	2:1

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