Match Info

III Liga - Group I - Round 33

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday


	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki		Wisła Płock II

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.6	2.72
	2.16	3.54	2.73
	2.19	3.62	2.78	Watch
	2.15	3.3	2.75
	2.18	3.52	2.79	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.22)	3.52 ↓ (3.57)	2.75 (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki
41.6%

Draw
25.6%

Wisła Płock II
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

25.6%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

24.5%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Wisła Płock II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wisła Płock II than the current prediction. (-1%)

Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Wisła Płock II Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
22', 0 - 1, Miarka J. ⚽,
34', 0 - 2, Miarka J. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
59', 1 - 2, Dworzynski P. ⚽,
69', 1 - 3, Lapinski S. ⚽,
81', 2 - 3, Olpinski A. ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 and 7).

Świt has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Wisła Płock II's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Świt won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Świt won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Swit Mazowiecki	11	6	2	3	20:12	8	20
6	Plock II	11	5	3	3	22:18	4	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
17.05.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	2:0 ✺
13.05.26	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - ŁKS Łomża	3:2 ✺
09.05.26	Znicz Biała Piska - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	0:2 ✺
03.05.26	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Wikielec	2:4 ✺
26.04.26	Broń Radom - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LWWLW
- Wisła Płock II
Polish Division 3 - Group I
17.05.26	Wisła Płock II - Olimpia Elbląg	1:1 ✺
13.05.26	Warta Sieradz - Wisła Płock II	1:1 ✺
09.05.26	Wisła Płock II - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	2:2 ✺
30.04.26	Wisła Płock II - Widzew Łódź II	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	Wasilków - Wisła Płock II	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group I
09.11.25	Wisła Płock II - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	1:1
31.05.25	Wisła Płock II - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	0:0
09.11.24	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Wisła Płock II	2:2

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