Match Info

III Liga - Group I - Round 30

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday


	Wisła Płock II		Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.5	2.3
	2.42	3.65	2.35
	2.45	3.85	2.37
	2.51	3.56	2.42	Watch
	2.45	3.3	2.4
	2.44	3.54	2.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↓ (2.57)	3.57 ↑ (3.54)	2.37 (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wisła Płock II
36.7%

Draw
25.3%

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

25.8%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

25.5%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wisła Płock II has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wisła Płock II than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (+1%)

Wisła Płock II - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Kempski M. ⚽,
31', 1 - 1, Bielka A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
76', 2 - 1, Bielka A. ⚽,
90+2', 2 - 2, Kempski M. ⚽,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 6 and 7)

Wisła Płock II is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Tomaszów Mazowiecki is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Wisła Płock II may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Wisła Płock II won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 1.3:2).

Including home match between the teams, Wisła Płock II won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Plock II	11	5	3	3	22:18	4	18
12	T. Mazowiecki	11	4	1	6	21:23	-2	13

Last Results with these Odds

Wisła Płock II - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 35.58%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wisła Płock II
Polish Division 3 - Group I
30.04.26	Wisła Płock II - Widzew Łódź II	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	Wasilków - Wisła Płock II	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Wisła Płock II - Wikielec	1:2 ✺
15.04.26	Legia II - Wisła Płock II	3:0 ✺
11.04.26	Ząbkovia Ząbki - Wisła Płock II	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLLLW
- Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
02.05.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Wigry Suwałki	1:3 ✺
25.04.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Ząbkovia Ząbki	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	ŁKS Łomża - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Widzew Łódź II	3:1 ✺
04.04.26	Broń Radom - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group I
18.10.25	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Wisła Płock II	4:1
22.03.25	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Wisła Płock II	1:0
25.08.24	Wisła Płock II - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	3:1

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