Match Info

TOPLYGA - Round 28

Date: 23 August 2026, Sunday

Location: LFF stadionas (Vilnius)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Žalgiris		Džiugas Telšiai

	1	X	2
	1.47	4.00	5.25
	1.58	3.65	4.5
	1.5	4.45	6.19
	1.5	4.25	6.04	Watch
	1.42	4.55	6.55
	1.4	4.25	6.56	Watch
	1.45	4.1	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.68)	4.18 ↑ (3.95)	5.78 ↑ (4.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Žalgiris
62.2%

Draw
21.9%

Džiugas Telšiai
15.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

23.5%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

24.9%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Žalgiris has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Žalgiris's performance.

Džiugas Telšiai has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Džiugas Telšiai might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Žalgiris than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Džiugas Telšiai than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Žalgiris - Džiugas Telšiai Predictions

Users Predictions: Žalgiris will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Sarkauskas V. (G) 18. Sesplaukis D. 4. Koy Lupano D. 15. Bosancic P. 21. Franke D. 77. Kendysh Y. (C) 10. Golubickas P. 20. Lytvynenko I. 27. Vareika M. 11. Petkovic N. 19. Bilenkyi S.	1. Paukste M. (G) 4. Sane B. 33. Ankudinovas L. (C) 44. Asomugha B. 23. Cisse I. 6. Pavlovskij N. 10. Piliukaitis V. 46. Wawszczyk J. 77. Andrezinho 7. Pedro Bahia 90. Sobowale R.
Substitutes
8. Antal L. 29. Bicka K. 9. Jarusevicius G. 23. Mamatsashvili S. 44. Matyzonok P. 7. Mihajlovic N. 1. Olses C. (G) 14. Setkus M. 5. Turda G. 13. Upstas K. 16. Usavicius J. 22. Verbickas O.	97. Balasanov A. 70. Ouattara A. 5. Rutkovskis M. 91. Ryabenko V. (G) 9. Scotto I. E. 48. Stelmokas T. 2. Vermeulen V. 27. Vinckus D. 14. Zevzikovas D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Vareika M. 🟨,
23', Kendysh Y. 🟨,
41', Andrezinho ↓, Vinckus D. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
59', 1 - 0, Lytvynenko I. ⚽,
60', Piliukaitis V. ↓, Scotto I. E. ↑,
60', Asomugha B. ↓, Vermeulen V. ↑,
66', Sesplaukis D. 🟨,
73', Sane B. ↓, Rutkovskis M. ↑,
73', Sobowale R. ↓, Zevzikovas D. ↑,
73', Sesplaukis D. ↓, Mamatsashvili S. ↑,
77', 🟨,
82', Vareika M. ↓, Upstas K. ↑,
86', Golubickas P. 🟨,
86', Vermeulen V. 🟨,
86', 🟨,
88', 🟨,
89', 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 0, Bilenkyi S. ⚽,
90+6', Petkovic N. ↓, Verbickas O. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Žalgiris won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Žalgiris is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Žalgiris won 13 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 44:17. (average 2.2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Žalgiris won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 29:12. (average 2.6:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Zalgiris	28	13	5	10	41:34	7	44
6	Dziugas Telsiai	28	10	8	10	36:40	-4	38

Last Results with these Odds

Žalgiris - the odds 1.68 are the expected chance of winning is 55.2%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Žalgiris Vilnius
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
16.08.26	Žalgiris - Banga Gargždai	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Hajduk Split - Žalgiris	4:0 ✺
06.08.26	Žalgiris - Hajduk Split	2:5 ✺
30.07.26	Žalgiris - Dinamo Tbilisi	7:2 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
27.07.26	Hegelmann Litauen - Žalgiris	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLLWW
- Džiugas Telšiai
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
17.08.26	Džiugas Telšiai - Sūduva Marijampolė	0:2 ✺
09.08.26	FA Šiauliai - Džiugas Telšiai	3:4 ✺
03.08.26	Panevėžys - Džiugas Telšiai	1:1 ✺
26.07.26	Transinvest - Džiugas Telšiai	1:0 ✺
19.07.26	Džiugas Telšiai - Banga Gargždai	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian TOPLYGA
28.06.26	Džiugas Telšiai - Žalgiris	0:0
26.04.26	Džiugas Telšiai - Žalgiris	0:3
21.02.26	Žalgiris - Džiugas Telšiai	2:3
05.10.25	Džiugas Telšiai - Žalgiris	1:2
19.07.25	Žalgiris - Džiugas Telšiai	2:0
31.05.25	Džiugas Telšiai - Žalgiris	1:1
02.03.25	Žalgiris - Džiugas Telšiai	2:1

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