Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 6

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Campo Conde de Sucena (Sintra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	1 Dezembro		Covilhã

	1	X	2
	2	3.1	3.25
	2.08	3.05	3.3
	2.04	3.26	3.96
	2.11	3.22	3.5	Watch
	2	2.9	3.6
	2.04	2.99	3.62
	2.05	3	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↑ (1.91)	3.07 ↓ (3.17)	3.52 ↓ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

1 Dezembro
44.5%

Draw
29.6%

Covilhã
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

28.8%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.2%

28.4%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

1 Dezembro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Covilhã has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for 1 Dezembro than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

1 Dezembro - Covilhã Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
47. Oliveira J. (G) 88. Abreu M. 77. Andrade Male S. A. 24. Edu 7. Ferreira D. 44. Gomes C. 20. Harramiz S. 85. Infante A. 33. Mane L. 17. Sapara A. 14. Vito	31. Pinto Galil L. G. (G) 26. Balsa C. 6. Barbosa A. 33. Calegari A. 20. Ferreira R. 22. Gomes Silva E. 96. Jailson 79. Liberal A. 99. Niang C. 11. Silva J. 77. Silva M. (C)
Substitutes
96. Arroyo J. 22. Dias G. 1. Duarte F. (G) 9. Ferreira C. 26. Freitas J. 2. Ramos P.	3. Costa Branco Novais Oliveira T. 90. Diancoumba S. 55. Garcia F. 74. Igreja T. (G) 30. Matos S. 10. Mica 78. Peixoto R. 27. Pimenta T. 13. Ribeiro P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Jailson ⚽,
29', Gomes C. 🟨,
40', 🟨,
41', 🟨,
41', 🟨,
43', Silva M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Harramiz S. ↓, Ferreira D. ↑,
46', Ferreira D. ↓, Ferreira C. ↑,
46', Edu ↓, Freitas J. ↑,
50', 0 - 2, Jailson ⚽,
68', Silva J. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
68', Barbosa A. ↓, Ribeiro P. ↑,
70', Infante A. ↓, Fuhrer P. ↑,
73', Freitas J. 🟨,
82', 1 - 2, Ferreira D. ⚽,
89', Gomes C. ↓, Dias G. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, 1 Dezembro won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

1 Dezembro might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, 1 Dezembro won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:4. (average 1.4:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, 1 Dezembro won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SU 1 Dezembro
Portuguese Liga 3
14.03.26	Amora - 1 Dezembro	0:4 ✺
07.03.26	Covilhã - 1 Dezembro	0:2 ✺
28.02.26	1 Dezembro - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	1 Dezembro - Atlético CP	1:5 ✺
15.02.26	Caldas - 1 Dezembro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWTLL
- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 3
14.03.26	Covilhã - Lusitano GC	1:3 ✺
07.03.26	Covilhã - 1 Dezembro	0:2 ✺
28.02.26	Atlético CP - Covilhã	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Covilhã - Caldas	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Amora - Covilhã	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.4 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
07.03.26	Covilhã - 1 Dezembro	0:2
30.11.25	1 Dezembro - Covilhã	1:1
16.08.25	Covilhã - 1 Dezembro	0:1
08.12.24	Covilhã - 1 Dezembro	0:3
24.08.24	1 Dezembro - Covilhã	3:1
10.12.23	Covilhã - 1 Dezembro	0:0
27.08.23	1 Dezembro - Covilhã	0:2

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