Match Info

Copa do Nordeste - Round 5

Date: 29 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Maria Lamas Farache (Frasqueirao) (Natal)


	ABC		Ferroviário Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.6	3.3	Watch
	1.95	3.15	3.5
	1.94	3.2	3.95
	1.29	5.04	9.71	Watch
	1.95	3	3.75
	1.92	3.04	3.97	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↑ (1.62)	3.51 ↑ (3.47)	4.7 ↓ (5.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ABC
52.5%

Draw
27.2%

Ferroviário Fortaleza
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.1%

26.2%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.1%

24.5%

16.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ABC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Ferroviário Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ABC than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for ABC, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviário Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ABC - Ferroviário Fortaleza Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Alves (G) 99. Bruno Leite 6. Dudu Mandai 5. Edson (C) 8. Geilson 10. Joao Pedro 15. Jonathan 2. Lucas Marques 18. Luiz Fernando 11. Wallyson 3. Wellington Carvalho	1. Victor Brasil (G) 25. Caio Bahia 99. Ciel 2. Geo J. 4. Iago Reis 5. Luan 16. Mena Y. 11. Pablinho 6. Pedrinho 22. Raphael Freitas 20. Rosa B.
Substitutes
17. Brunao 23. Cayo Tenorio 20. de Sousa Oliveira T. 19. Esquerdinha E. 16. Jefferson Vinicius 7. Jhosefer 13. Joao Victor 22. Randerson 27. Rikelmi 12. Rodolfo Castro (G) 14. Wellington Reis	14. Bruno Miranda 9. Camilo 7. Carlinhos 33. Daniel (G) 15. Fernando Portel 13. Pablo Maldini 21. Paulo Ricardo 93. Sivaldo Junior (G) 10. Thalisson 19. Thomas Luciano

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', Victor Brasil 🟨,
10', 1 - 0, Wallyson (Penalty Awarded),
28', Geilson 🟨,
29', Jonathan 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Luiz Fernando ↓, Jhosefer ↑,
46', Mena Y. ↓, Carlinhos ↑,
46', Pedrinho ↓, Thalisson ↑,
46', Luan ↓, Pablo Maldini ↑,
56', 1 - 1, Thalisson ⚽,
58', Geilson 🟥,
61', Joao Pedro ↓, Rikelmi ↑,
61', Jonathan ↓, Wellington Reis ↑,
61', Bruno Leite ↓, Brunao ↑,
63', 2 - 1, Wallyson ⚽,
66', Iago Reis ↓, Fernando Portel ↑,
70', Pablinho ↓, Paulo Ricardo ↑,
72', Rikelmi ↓, Randerson ↑,
78', Paulo Ricardo 🟨,
81', 3 - 1, Wallyson ⚽,
83', Wallyson 🟨,
90+2', 4 - 1, Jhosefer ⚽,
90+3', Pablo Maldini 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, ABC won 3.

ABC is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Ferroviário is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

ABC may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, ABC has had a series of away games.

In this match, ABC is seen as the favorite.

We predict that ABC will win today's game, with odds of 1.62.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, ABC won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 19:10. (average 2.7:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, ABC won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 2.5:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ABC FC
Brazilian Serie D
25.04.26	Sousa - ABC	0:1 ✺
22.04.26	América RN - ABC	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
16.04.26	Imperatriz de Desportos - ABC	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
12.04.26	ABC - Laguna	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
07.04.26	América RN - ABC	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.6 WWWWW
- Ferroviário Fortaleza
Brazilian Serie D
26.04.26	Atlético Cearense - Ferroviário Fortaleza	0:2 ✺
18.04.26	Altos - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
15.04.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Retrô Brasil	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
11.04.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Tirol	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
07.04.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Jacuipense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
19.05.24	Ferroviário Fortaleza - ABC	0:4
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
22.02.23	Ferroviário Fortaleza - ABC	2:2
Brazilian Serie C
16.04.22	Ferroviário Fortaleza - ABC	1:3
05.08.19	Ferroviário Fortaleza - ABC	1:2
02.06.19	ABC - Ferroviário Fortaleza	2:4
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
27.03.18	ABC - Ferroviário Fortaleza	3:1
18.01.18	Ferroviário Fortaleza - ABC	1:3

ABC - Ferroviário Fortaleza: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide