Match Info

Liga 2 - Promotion Group - Round 3

Date: 3 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Victor Montoya Segura (Jaen)


	ADA Jaén		Santos

	1	X	2
	2.62	3.2	2.38
	2.06	3.46	2.79
	2.58	3.13	2.72	Watch
	2.84	3.1	2.36
	2.84	3.1	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↑ (2.17)	3.2 ↓ (3.25)	2.52 ↓ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ADA Jaén
35.3%

Draw
28.5%

Santos
36.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

28.1%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

26.9%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ADA Jaén has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that ADA Jaén's form might have worsened.

Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Santos's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ADA Jaén than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for ADA Jaén, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Santos, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

ADA Jaén - Santos Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - ADA (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. ADA (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rojas S. (G) 22. Acevedo G. 11. Cubas A. 14. Guzman C. 19. Labrin V. 37. Maciel E. 8. Nunez J. 9. Rodriguez F. 44. Rossi E. 18. Salinas T. 3. Villalta M.	1. Roman C. (G) 24. Andia R. 29. Cavero G. 22. Colon S. 27. Cuneo O. 10. Deza J. 4. Estacio M. 3. Falcon L. 19. Mena Y. 8. Munoz J. 6. Velasco S.
Substitutes
10. Aponza S. 13. Cano L. 17. Crespo H. 7. Duque L. 15. Lopez D. 74. Lozada J. (G) 6. Perez 4. Prado B. 77. Rodriguez A.	2. Canova J. 35. Carranza T. 18. Condena A. 9. Curiel M. 32. Farias J. 28. Garcia C. 17. Inolopu F. 15. Llanos A. 12. Rosales R. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
52', 1 - 0, Cubas A. ⚽,
52', Cavero G. 🟨,
52', Rossi E. 🟨,
60', Nunez J. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Mena Y. ⚽,
73', 🟨,
74', Labrin V. ↓, Cano L. ↑,
74', Salinas T. ↓, Duque L. ↑,
74', Guzman C. ↓, Crespo H. ↑,
78', 1 - 2, Estacio M. ⚽,
81', 🟨,
82', 🟨,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Santos may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Santos will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, ADA won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 2:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, ADA won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ADA Jaén
Peruvian Liga 2
26.07.25	Comerciantes Belén - ADA Jaén	1:1 ✺
20.07.25	ADA Jaén - San Marcos	0:0 ✺
05.07.25	ADA Jaén - Deportivo Llacuabamba	1:1 ✺
28.06.25	Pirata - ADA Jaén	1:1 ✺
21.06.25	ADA Jaén - Carlos A. Mannucci	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TTTTT
- Santos de Nasca
Peruvian Liga 2
26.07.25	Santos - Unión Comercio	0:2 ✺
06.07.25	Santos - Cantolao	2:0 ✺
28.06.25	Universidad San Martín - Santos	2:0 ✺
22.06.25	Bentín Tacna Heroica - Santos	4:0 ✺
14.06.25	Santos - Unión Comercio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 2
07.09.24	Santos - ADA Jaén	1:2
11.08.24	ADA Jaén - Santos	2:4

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