Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 6 November 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: AEK Arena (Larnaca) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Cerny D. (Cze)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	14:45	Disney+
Armenia	21:45	Fast Sports
Australia	04:45	Stan Sport
Austria	18:45	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1
Canada	12:45	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	14:45	Disney+
China	01:45	ZhiBo8
Colombia	12:45	Disney+
Cyprus	19:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Denmark	18:45	Disney+
Finland	19:45	Viaplay
France	18:45	Canal+ Live 14, Canal+ Live 15
Germany	18:45	RTL+
Greece	19:45	ANT 1+
Hong Kong	01:45	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	17:45	Viaplay
Indonesia	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Laos	00:45	beIN Connect
Malaysia	01:45	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	11:45	Disney+
New Zealand	06:45	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	18:45	Viaplay
Peru	12:45	Disney+
Philippines	01:45	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	17:45	DAZN / App
Russia	20:45	Okko Sport
Singapore	01:45	beIN SPORTS MAX
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	18:45	M+ Liga de Campeones 12, M+ Liga de Campeones 13
Sweden	18:45	Disney+
Thailand	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	19:45	MEGOGO Futbol 15
United Kingdom	17:45	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 3
Uruguay	14:45	Disney+
Usa	12:45	Paramount+
Venezuela	13:45	Disney+
Vietnam	00:45	ON Plus


	AEK Larnaca		Aberdeen

	1	X	2
	1.62	4	5
	1.68	3.7	5.4
	1.66	3.91	5.46
	1.57	4.17	5.53	Watch
	1.68	3.99	5.4
	1.48	4.4	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.43)	4.03 ↓ (4.2)	5.6 ↓ (7.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AEK Larnaca
59.2%

Draw
23.7%

Aberdeen
17.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

65.2%

22.2%

12.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.6%

21.7%

12.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AEK Larnaca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that AEK Larnaca's form might have worsened.

Aberdeen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AEK Larnaca than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for AEK Larnaca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aberdeen than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	9.5%	4.8%

AEK Larnaca - Aberdeen Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 - AEK Larnaca (4.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - AEK Larnaca (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Aberdeen (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: AEK Larnaca will win (18 of 21 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.74% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): AEK Larnaca will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. AEK Larnaca (votes: 8 - 80%). Aberdeen (votes: 1 - 10%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alomerovic Z. (G) 21. Miramon 22. Ekpolo G. 15. Milicevic H. (C) 93. Gnali J. 7. Ledes Gustavo 6. Jimmy Suarez 17. Pons P. 9. Ivanovic D. 11. Bajic R. 10. Rubio W.	1. Mitov D. (G) 2. Devlin N. (C) 5. Knoester M. 22. Milne J. 28. Jensen A. 38. Lobban D. 8. Polvara D. 7. Aouchiche A. 16. Armstrong S. 27. Lazetic M. 17. Karlsson J.
Substitutes
19. Angielski K. 99. Demetriou D. (G) 37. Gerasimou D. 2. Ioannou P. 41. Mathias Gonzalez 29. Naoum G. 51. Paraskevas A. (G) 27. Roberge V.	10. Clarkson L. 77. Gyamfi E. 81. Keskinen T. 11. Milanovic N. 21. Molloy G. 15. Nisbet K. 4. Shinnie G. 13. Suman N. (G) 41. Vitols R. (G) 9. Yengi K.
Coaches
Idiakez I.	Thelin J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Lazetic M. ↓, Nisbet K. ↑,
63', Armstrong S. ↓, Keskinen T. ↑,
67', Rubio W. ↓, Naoum G. ↑,
72', Bajic R. ↓, Angielski K. ↑,
72', Pons P. ↓, Mathias Gonzalez ↑,
75', Karlsson J. ↓, Milanovic N. ↑,
76', Jensen A. ↓, Gyamfi E. ↑,
84', Polvara D. ↓, Shinnie G. ↑,
90+2', Mathias Gonzalez 🟨,
90+2', Ekpolo G. ↓, Ioannou P. ↑,

Preview

AEK Larnaca has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Aberdeen has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Aberdeen may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, AEK Larnaca has had a series of away games.

In this match, AEK Larnaca is the clear favorite.

There will not play in AEK Larnaca: Amyn Y. (Inactive) Chacon Y. (Injury) Komar K. (Broken Hand) Roberge V. (Inactive) Thoma C. (Inactive)

There will not play in Aberdeen: Gyamfi E. (Inactive) Tobers K. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in AEK Larnaca: Cabrera E. (Knee Injury) Garcia A. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Aberdeen: Nilsen S. (Inactive)

We predict that AEK Larnaca will win today's game, with odds of 1.5.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AEK Larnaca
Cypriot First Division
02.11.25	Apollon Limassol - AEK Larnaca	1:2 ✺
Cypriot Super Cup
30.10.25	Paphos - AEK Larnaca	1:2 penalties ✺
Cypriot First Division
27.10.25	AEK Larnaca - APOEL	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.10.25	Crystal Palace - AEK Larnaca	0:1 ✺
Cypriot First Division
18.10.25	Enosis Neon Paralimni - AEK Larnaca	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 42.4 WWTWW
- Aberdeen FC
Scottish Premier League
29.10.25	Kilmarnock - Aberdeen	0:1 ✺
26.10.25	Aberdeen - Hibernian	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.10.25	AEK Athens - Aberdeen	6:0 ✺
Scottish Premier League
18.10.25	St. Mirren - Aberdeen	0:1 ✺
05.10.25	Aberdeen - Dundee	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WLLWW

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