Match Info

Premiership - Round 30

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Pittodrie Stadium (Aberdeen)

Referee: Scott C. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Nigeria	Red TV


	Aberdeen		Falkirk

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.3	2.35	Watch
	2.6	3.2	2.65
	2.88	3.2	2.42
	3.03	3.41	2.44
	2.96	3.39	2.38	Watch
	2.9	3.2	2.38
	2.93	3.24	2.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↑ (2.51)	3.28 ↑ (3.23)	2.43 ↓ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aberdeen
32.7%

Draw
28.7%

Falkirk
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

28.7%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

30.4%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aberdeen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Falkirk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aberdeen than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aberdeen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Falkirk than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Falkirk, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	22.2%	22.2%

Aberdeen - Falkirk Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Aberdeen will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Falkirk will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aberdeen: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Falkirk (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Falkirk (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Falkirk (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mitov D. (G) 22. Milne J. 23. Morrison L. 21. Molloy G. 38. Lobban D. 8. Geiger D. 4. Shinnie G. (C) 3. Frame M. 27. Lazetic M. 16. Armstrong S. 15. Nisbet K.	19. Bain S. (G) 28. Lissah F. 6. Donaldson C. (C) 5. Henderson L. 3. McCann L. 8. Spencer B. 21. Tait D. 11. Broggio B. 14. Yeats F. 29. Miller C. 16. Stewart B.
Substitutes
32. Afeez A. 14. Bilalovic K. 99. Bratveit P. (G) 25. Cameron L. 28. Jensen A. 81. Keskinen T. 6. Nilsen S. 20. Olusanya T. 18. Palaversa A.	2. Adams K. 20. Allan C. 17. Cartwright H. 7. Graham B. 1. Hogarth N. (G) 15. Neilson L. 18. Oliver G. 23. Ross E. 24. Williams E.
Coaches
Robinson S.	McGlynn J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', Armstrong S. ↓, Cameron L. ↑,
61', Shinnie G. ↓, Palaversa A. ↑,
61', Lazetic M. ↓, Olusanya T. ↑,
69', Tait D. ↓, Cartwright H. ↑,
69', Broggio B. ↓, Ross E. ↑,
73', 1 - 0, Nisbet K. ⚽,
75', Yeats F. ↓, Williams E. ↑,
80', Nisbet K. 🟨,
81', Miller C. ↓, Graham B. ↑,
81', Frame M. ↓, Jensen A. ↑,
84', Geiger D. ↓, Nilsen S. ↑,
89', 1 - 1, Stewart B. ⚽, Ross E. (A),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 in the zone Premiership (Relegation Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Premiership (Championship Group: )).

Aberdeen is Premiership (Relegation Group )

Aberdeen has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Falkirk has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Falkirk may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Falkirk has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Aberdeen: Devlin N. (Inactive) Knoester M. (Injury) Suman N. (Ankle Injury) Tobers K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Falkirk: MacIver R. (Inactive) Oliver G. (Hamstring Injury) Parkinson B. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Aberdeen won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 1.5:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Aberdeen won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Outrights of Scottish Premier League for now

Aberdeen: 0.47% Falkirk: 0.38%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Aberdeen	7	2	2	3	7:8	-1	8
11	Falkirk	8	1	3	4	7:11	-4	6

Last Results with these Odds

Aberdeen - the odds 2.51 are the expected chance of winning is 36.99%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aberdeen FC
Scottish Cup
07.03.26	Dunfermline Athletic - Aberdeen	3:0 ✺
Scottish Premier League
04.03.26	Aberdeen - Celtic	1:2 ✺
28.02.26	Hearts - Aberdeen	1:0 ✺
24.02.26	Dundee United - Aberdeen	0:0 ✺
21.02.26	Aberdeen - Dundee	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLTL
- Falkirk FC
Scottish Cup
06.03.26	Falkirk - Dundee United	2:1 ✺
Scottish Premier League
28.02.26	Falkirk - Kilmarnock	5:1 ✺
21.02.26	Hearts - Falkirk	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Falkirk - Dundee United	2:3 ✺
11.02.26	Falkirk - Dundee	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Premier League
03.01.26	Falkirk - Aberdeen	1:0
31.08.25	Aberdeen - Falkirk	0:1
Club Friendly
04.07.18	Aberdeen - Falkirk	1:0
Scottish League Cup
25.09.13	Falkirk - Aberdeen	0:5

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