Match Info

Date: 22 January 2021, Friday


	AEK Larnaca		Ermis Aradippou

	1	X	2
	1.3	4.5	8
	1.3	4.5	8.5
	1.34	4.1	8.4
	1.34	4.7	11.1
	1.33	4	9
	1.37	4.45	8.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↑ (1.32)	4.38 ↑ (4.37)	8.95 ↑ (8.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AEK Larnaca
68.8%

Draw
20.9%

Ermis Aradippou
10.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.6%

20.7%

10.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

10.9%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AEK Larnaca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Ermis Aradippou has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AEK Larnaca than the current prediction. (-32.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with AEK Larnaca that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ermis Aradippou than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ermis Aradippou could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

AEK Larnaca - Ermis Aradippou Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion to First Division (Championship Group) and 12 in the zone First Division (Relegation Group)).

AEK Larnaca is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Ermis is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ermis could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match AEK Larnaca is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 16 head-to-head matches AEK Larnaca won 11 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 34-11.

Including matches at home between the teams AEK Larnaca won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AEK Larnaca
Cypriot First Division
18.01.21	Doxa Katokopias - AEK Larnaca	0:0 ✺
13.01.21	APOEL - AEK Larnaca	1:1 ✺
10.01.21	AEK Larnaca - Enosis Neon Paralimni	1:2 ✺
06.01.21	AEL Limassol - AEK Larnaca	3:1 ✺
03.01.21	AEK Larnaca - Omonia	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TTLLL
- Ermis Aradippou
Cypriot First Division
15.01.21	Ermis Aradippou - Karmiotissa Pano Polemidion	2:0 ✺
09.01.21	APOEL - Ermis Aradippou	3:0 ✺
05.01.21	Ermis Aradippou - Nea Salamis	1:2 ✺
02.01.21	Olympiacos Nicosia - Ermis Aradippou	0:0 ✺
24.12.20	Ermis Aradippou - Ethnikos Achna	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Cypriot First Division
24.10.20	Ermis Aradippou - AEK Larnaca	0:2
13.01.19	AEK Larnaca - Ermis Aradippou	2:2
07.10.18	Ermis Aradippou - AEK Larnaca	1:2
17.12.17	AEK Larnaca - Ermis Aradippou	1:1
11.09.17	Ermis Aradippou - AEK Larnaca	0:4
26.02.17	Ermis Aradippou - AEK Larnaca	2:3
26.11.16	AEK Larnaca - Ermis Aradippou	1:0

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