Match Info

Cyprus League - Round 15

Date: 22 December 2025, Monday

Location: Alphamega Stadium (Kolossi)

Referee: Solomou D. (Cyp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 1, Cytavision Sports 1
Mexico	Claro Sports
Venezuela	Inter


	AEL Limassol		AEK Larnaca

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.4	1.85
	4.15	3.52	1.83
	4	3.54	1.88	Watch
	4	3.1	1.85
	3.99	3.4	1.9	Watch
	3.8	3.4	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.97 ↓ (4.24)	3.39 ↓ (3.72)	1.86 ↑ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AEL Limassol
23.2%

Draw
27.2%

AEK Larnaca
49.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22%

25.1%

52.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.8%

26.5%

55.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AEL Limassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

AEK Larnaca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AEL Limassol than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AEK Larnaca than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AEK Larnaca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

AEL Limassol - AEK Larnaca Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. AEK Larnaca will win (votes: 9 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AEK Larnaca: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): AEK Larnaca will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Ochoa G. (G) 21. Bogdan L. 26. Glavcic N. 97. Keller S. 23. Leo Natel 25. Panagiotou Filiotis A. 35. Sergio Conceicao 11. Singh L. 15. Stevanovic D. 37. Szoke J. 6. Zdravkovski D. (C)	1. Alomerovic Z. (G) 20. Amyn Y. 30. Cabrera E. 22. Ekpolo G. 23. Izquierdo J. 7. Ledes Gustavo 15. Milicevic H. (C) 21. Miramon 29. Naoum G. 17. Pons P. 4. Saborit E.
Substitutes
17. Christodoulou S. 45. Forestieri F. 2. Frantzis C. 10. Jradi B. Z. 99. Keravnos A. (G) 98. Kyriakou P. (G) 33. Makris A. 19. Milosavljevic I. 90. Panagi P. 8. Papafotis V. 42. Wheeler C.	19. Angielski K. 11. Bajic R. 99. Demetriou D. (G) 14. Garcia A. 2. Ioannou P. 9. Ivanovic D. 41. Mathias Gonzalez 51. Paraskevas A. (G) 27. Roberge V. 10. Rubio W.
Coaches
Martins H.	Idiakez I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', 0 - 1, Cabrera E. ⚽,
45+3', Stevanovic D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Glavcic N. 🟨,
60', Bogdan L. 🟨,
62', Szoke J. ↓, Jradi B. Z. ↑,
64', Ekpolo G. 🟨,
67', Izquierdo J. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
70', Panagiotou Filiotis A. ↓, Milosavljevic I. ↑,
79', Amyn Y. ↓, Ivanovic D. ↑,
79', Cabrera E. ↓, Angielski K. ↑,
81', Bogdan L. ↓, Makris A. ↑,
81', Zdravkovski D. ↓, Papafotis V. ↑,
81', Glavcic N. ↓, Forestieri F. ↑,
82', Miramon ↓, Mathias Gonzalez ↑,
82', Naoum G. ↓, Rubio W. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 7 in the zone Cyprus League (Relegation Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Cyprus League (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, AEL won 0.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

AEL may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, AEK Larnaca is considered a favorite.

There will not play in AEL: Neofytou K. (Surgery) Ouedraogo D. (Injury) Thomalla D. (Inactive)

There will not play in AEK Larnaca: Chacon Y. (Knee Injury) Izquierdo J. (Inactive) Jimmy Suarez (Inactive) Komar K. (Broken Hand) Rohden M. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, AEL won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 21:27. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, AEL won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.6:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AEL Limassol
Cypriot First Division
14.12.25	Olympiacos Nicosia - AEL Limassol	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Omonia Aradippou - AEL Limassol	1:3 ✺
30.11.25	AEL Limassol - Apollon Limassol	2:2 ✺
23.11.25	APOEL - AEL Limassol	1:2 ✺
07.11.25	AEL Limassol - Enosis Neon Paralimni	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.9 TWTWW
- AEK Larnaca
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.12.25	AEK Larnaca - Shkendija Tetovo	1:0 ✺
Cypriot First Division
15.12.25	AEK Larnaca - Omonia	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.12.25	Häcken - AEK Larnaca	1:1 ✺
Cypriot First Division
06.12.25	AEK Larnaca - Ethnikos Achna	2:1 ✺
01.12.25	Akritas Chlorakas - AEK Larnaca	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Cypriot First Division
31.08.25	AEK Larnaca - AEL Limassol	2:0
02.02.25	AEK Larnaca - AEL Limassol	2:0
27.10.24	AEL Limassol - AEK Larnaca	1:1
Club Friendly
17.08.24	AEK Larnaca - AEL Limassol	1:1
Cypriot First Division
14.02.24	AEL Limassol - AEK Larnaca	2:3
27.11.23	AEK Larnaca - AEL Limassol	3:0
19.02.23	AEL Limassol - AEK Larnaca	2:1

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