Match Info

Premier League

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Amahoro (Kigali)


	APR		Bugesera

	1	X	2
	1.42	3.65	7.7
	1.41	3.91	8.12	Watch
	1.44	3.4	8
	1.46	3.79	7.69	Watch
	1.45	3.66	6.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↑ (1.37)	3.68 ↑ (3.66)	7.63 ↓ (9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

APR
63.4%

Draw
24.7%

Bugesera
11.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.5%

24.5%

10%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.8%

24%

9.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

APR has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Bugesera has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for APR than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bugesera than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

APR - Bugesera Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. APR (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification: ) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, APR won 3.

APR is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Bugesera has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Bugesera may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, APR is the undisputed favorite.

We predict that APR will win today's game, with odds of 1.37.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, APR won 13 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 31:9. (average 1.6:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, APR won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 20:7. (average 2:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	APR	1	1	0	0	4:2	2	3
17	Bugesera	1	0	0	1	0:1	-1	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- APR FC
Rwanda Premier League
26.12.25	Muhanga - APR	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	APR - Gasogi United	2:0 ✺
13.12.25	Gorilla - APR	0:0 ✺
06.12.25	APR - Police	0:0 ✺
02.12.25	APR - Etincelles	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWTTW
- Bugesera FC
Rwanda Premier League
26.12.25	Bugesera - Police	1:0 ✺
19.12.25	Kigali - Bugesera	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Bugesera - Rayon Sports	2:1 ✺
11.12.25	Al-Hilal Club of Omdurman - Bugesera	3:1 ✺
05.12.25	Bugesera - Mukura Victory Sports	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.2 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Rwanda Premier League
05.04.25	Bugesera - APR	0:1
27.11.24	APR - Bugesera	2:0
18.02.24	Bugesera - APR	0:0
10.10.23	APR - Bugesera	1:1
02.04.23	APR - Bugesera	2:1
17.04.22	Bugesera - APR	0:1
12.12.21	APR - Bugesera	2:1

APR - Bugesera: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide