Match Info

Premier League

Date: 19 December 2025, Friday


	Kigali		Bugesera

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.82	3.3
	2.23	2.8	3.33
	2.26	2.84	3.4	Watch
	2.25	2.63	3.3
	2.24	2.75	3.43
	2.25	2.8	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.13)	2.77 ↓ (2.89)	3.34 ↓ (3.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kigali
40.4%

Draw
32.6%

Bugesera
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.5%

31.3%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

30.4%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kigali has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Bugesera has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kigali than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bugesera than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Kigali - Bugesera Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kigali won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Kigali may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Kigali will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Kigali won 9 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 23:7. (average 1.4:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Kigali won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 15:2. (average 1.9:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Kigali
Rwanda Premier League
13.12.25	Muhanga - Kigali	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Al-Merreikh - Kigali	2:1 ✺
28.11.25	Kigali - APR	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	Rayon Sports - Kigali	0:2 ✺
07.11.25	Kigali - Police	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.8 TLTWT
- Bugesera FC
Rwanda Premier League
14.12.25	Bugesera - Rayon Sports	2:1 ✺
11.12.25	Al-Hilal Club of Omdurman - Bugesera	3:1 ✺
05.12.25	Bugesera - Mukura Victory Sports	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	Marines - Bugesera	2:1 ✺
27.11.25	Bugesera - Al-Merreikh	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Rwanda Premier League
08.02.25	Kigali - Bugesera	1:0
07.12.24	Bugesera - Kigali	1:2
13.01.24	Bugesera - Kigali	0:0
21.08.23	Kigali - Bugesera	1:0
28.05.23	Bugesera - Kigali	2:1
06.11.22	Kigali - Bugesera	0:0
21.05.22	Kigali - Bugesera	0:0

Kigali - Bugesera: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide