Match Info

USL League One

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Lancaster Municipal Stadium (Lancaster, CA)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	AV Alta		Forward Madison

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.2	3.45	2.72
	2.08	3.73	3.25
	2.29	3.85	2.68	Watch
	2	3.3	3
	2.1	3.7	3.08	Watch
	2.08	3.3	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (2.08)	3.56 ↑ (3.3)	2.96 ↓ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AV Alta
43.2%

Draw
25.8%

Forward Madison
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43%

27.1%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

27.8%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AV Alta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Forward Madison has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AV Alta than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Forward Madison than the current prediction. (-2%)

AV Alta - Forward Madison Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Smith D. (G) 23. Thomas R. 4. Pajaro M. (C) 44. Pehlivanov K. 2. Ortiz C. 5. Alassane M. 21. Villalobos J. 20. Antwi G. 7. Desdunes J. 18. Aoumaich A. 99. Bahena Jr C.	1. Harms J. (G) 13. Humphrey T. 20. Carmichael K. 4. McCamy C. 6. Kanyane G. 12. Torres R. 16. Castro J. 23. Munjoma E. 9. Carmichael R. 14. Gyamfi S. 17. Gebhard D. (C)
Substitutes
19. Anderson C. 16. Ceja E. 27. Doumbia D. (G) 24. Higareda S. 10. Ibarra M. 6. Lay O. 17. Mariona J. 12. Relerford N. 15. Winum M.	7. Bolma J. 30. Machacen E. 19. Manske T. (G) 11. Ngoubou C. 18. Romanshyn K. 5. Shannon J. 33. Toure K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Desdunes J. (Penalty Awarded),
19', Torres R. 🟨,
21', 2 - 0, Antwi G. ⚽, Thomas R. (A),
44', Pajaro M. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Antwi G. ↓, Relerford N. ↑,
46', Kanyane G. ↓, Bolma J. ↑,
46', Bahena Jr C. ↓, Ceja E. ↑,
57', Smith D. 🟨,
60', Carmichael K. 🟨,
61', Thomas R. ↓, Lay O. ↑,
61', Aoumaich A. ↓, Ibarra M. ↑,
63', Castro J. ↓, Ngoubou C. ↑,
71', Torres R. ↓, Machacen E. ↑,
71', Carmichael K. ↓, Shannon J. ↑,
74', Alassane M. ↓, Winum M. ↑,
77', Ibarra M. 🟨,
79', Gebhard D. ↓, Romanshyn K. ↑,
82', Munjoma E. 🟨,
89', Gyamfi S. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Recent form of Alta has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Forward Madison has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Alta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Forward Madison has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Alta won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Alta won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Forward Madison ✔	29	15	7	7	50:27	23	52
13	AV Alta	29	8	8	13	35:42	-7	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AV Alta FC
USL Cup
25.04.26	New Mexico United - AV Alta	2:1 ✺
USL League One
11.04.26	AV Alta - Boise	2:2 ✺
07.04.26	Spokane Velocity - AV Alta	3:1 ✺
04.04.26	AV Alta - Union Omaha	1:3 ✺
28.03.26	AV Alta - Chattanooga Red Wolves	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LTLLT
- Forward Madison
USL League One
02.05.26	Sarasota Paradise - Forward Madison	1:3 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	Lexington - Forward Madison	4:2 ✺
USL League One
19.04.26	New York Cosmos - Forward Madison	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Union Omaha - Forward Madison	1:0 ✺
28.03.26	Naples - Forward Madison	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
06.09.25	AV Alta - Forward Madison	3:3
02.08.25	Forward Madison - AV Alta	0:0

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