Match Info

USL League One

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Premier Sports Campus (Lakewood Ranch, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Sarasota Paradise		Forward Madison

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.88	3.3	3.4
	2.15	3.1	3.05
	2.13	3.23	3.19
	2.22	3.23	3.23	Watch
	2.1	3	3.1
	2.13	3.16	3.17
	2.55	3.25	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.55)	3.18 ↓ (3.25)	3.08 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarasota Paradise
42%

Draw
28.6%

Forward Madison
29.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

27.8%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

27%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarasota Paradise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sarasota Paradise's performance.

Forward Madison has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Forward Madison might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarasota Paradise than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sarasota Paradise that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Forward Madison than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Forward Madison could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sarasota Paradise - Forward Madison Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sutton A. (G) 5. Sogaard A. 4. Watters D. (C) 3. Valentine R. 36. Rosa A. 8. Walker A. 14. Pettersen J. 46. Roed S. 20. Tainio M. 17. Bolanos J. 19. McLaughlin G.	1. Harms J. (G) 13. Humphrey T. 20. Carmichael K. 4. McCamy C. 3. Edwards A. 17. Gebhard D. (C) 16. Castro J. 23. Munjoma E. 9. Carmichael R. 14. Gyamfi S. 11. Ngoubou C.
Substitutes
9. Bender J. 50. Brulinski D. 7. Bryant E. 2. Burlew R. 51. Kend A. 13. Lapkes S. (G) 27. O'Dwyer C. 16. Rodriguez A. 6. Stretch C.	7. Bolma J. 30. Machacen E. 19. Manske T. (G) 18. Romanshyn K. 5. Shannon J. 12. Torres R. 33. Toure K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
24', 0 - 1, Gebhard D. ⚽,
28', 1 - 1, Bolanos J. ⚽, Roed S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Ngoubou C. ↓, Torres R. ↑,
58', Edwards A. 🟨,
68', Tainio M. ↓, Bender J. ↑,
68', Watters D. 🟨,
72', Edwards A. ↓, Shannon J. ↑,
81', McLaughlin G. ↓, O'Dwyer C. ↑,
82', Castro J. ↓, Romanshyn K. ↑,
82', Gebhard D. ↓, Machacen E. ↑,
84', 1 - 2, Humphrey T. ⚽, Machacen E. (A),
86', 1 - 3, Bolma J. ⚽,
89', Roed S. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
89', Bolanos J. ↓, Bryant E. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Recently, Forward Madison has had a series of away games.

Sarasota Paradise is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Forward Madison ✔	29	15	7	7	50:27	23	52
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	9	6	13	39:43	-4	33

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarasota Paradise
USL Cup
25.04.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Sarasota Paradise	2:0 ✺
USL League One
22.04.26	Sarasota Paradise - Corpus Christi	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Naples - Sarasota Paradise	2:0 ✺
08.04.26	Westchester SC - Sarasota Paradise	2:0 ✺
04.04.26	Sarasota Paradise - One Knoxville	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWLLL
- Forward Madison
USL Cup
25.04.26	Lexington - Forward Madison	4:2 ✺
USL League One
19.04.26	New York Cosmos - Forward Madison	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Union Omaha - Forward Madison	1:0 ✺
28.03.26	Naples - Forward Madison	0:1 ✺
US Open Cup
19.03.26	Flint City Bucks - Forward Madison	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LTLWL

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