Match Info

OBOS-ligaen - Promotion - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 26 November 2025, Wednesday

Location: Color Line Stadion (Ålesund)

Referee: Hauge S. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Norway	TV2 Play


	Aalesunds		Egersund

	1	X	2
	1.6	4.1	4.2
	1.65	4.15	4.55
	1.64	4.26	4.82
	1.73	4.10	4.01	Watch
	1.65	4.1	4.6	Watch
	1.58	4.5	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.95)	4.2 ↑ (3.5)	4.49 ↑ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aalesunds
56.9%

Draw
22.2%

Egersund
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.3%

26.9%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.6%

28.8%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aalesunds has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aalesunds's performance.

Egersund has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aalesunds than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aalesunds that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Egersund than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	10%	30%

Aalesunds - Egersund Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Aalesunds will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Egersund will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aalesunds: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Aalesunds (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Egersund (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Grytebust S. (G) 4. Haram S. 5. Kjelsen A. 15. Skuseth N. 7. Nesso K. 21. Christensen M. 6. Hammer H. 8. Melland H. 16. Orsahl J. 9. Ngongo P. (C) 39. Lonebu K.	1. Hermansen A. (G) 2. Kleppa H. 5. Jenssen N. 31. Jonsson I. 3. Maeland B. 22. Tadesse H. 21. Eggen K. 8. Sleveland C. (C) 77. Nyenetue F. 9. Kapskarmo O. 27. Vatne S.
Substitutes
2. Andresen M. 45. Aukland P. 29. Boe J. 23. Froysa E. 3. Gudmundsson O. 19. Heiselberg F. 11. Johannsson D. 26. Larsen T. (G) 17. Myrlid E.	19. Adegbenro S. 30. Atlason A. 91. Davis S. 29. Haheim-Elveseter M. 18. Hovland P. 12. Lonning S. A. A. (G) 13. Pichkah P. 14. Rogulj A. 45. Sauer M.
Coaches
Rekdal K.	Eide E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Kapskarmo O. ⚽, Nyenetue F. (A),
29', Jenssen N. ↓, Davis S. ↑,
33', Sleveland C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Davis S. 🟨,
65', Nyenetue F. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,
77', Skuseth N. ↓, Heiselberg F. ↑,
77', Nesso K. ↓, Johannsson D. ↑,
82', Hermansen A. 🟨,
88', Maeland B. 🟨,
88', Christensen M. 🟨,
90', Eggen K. ↓, Pichkah P. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 1, Lonebu K. ⚽,
90+4', Orsahl J. 🟨,
Extra Time (2 - 0)
93', 2 - 1, Heiselberg F. ⚽, Christensen M. (A),
96', Vatne S. ↓, Haheim-Elveseter M. ↑,
96', Tadesse H. ↓, Adegbenro S. ↑,
97', Melland H. ↓, Andresen M. ↑,
97', Lonebu K. ↓, Aukland P. ↑,
98', Kjelsen A. 🟨,
106', Kleppa H. ↓, Rogulj A. ↑,
119', 3 - 1, Johannsson D. ⚽, Christensen M. (A),
120', Ngongo P. ↓, Myrlid E. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ OBOS~ligaen (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ OBOS~ligaen (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Aalesunds is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Egersund is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Aalesunds may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Aalesunds is a strong favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Aalesunds won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 1.8:2.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Aalesunds won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 2:3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aalesunds FK
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
08.11.25	Hødd - Aalesunds	0:0 ✺
01.11.25	Aalesunds - Åsane	3:0 ✺
25.10.25	Moss - Aalesunds	1:1 ✺
22.10.25	Aalesunds - Lyn	2:1 ✺
18.10.25	Mjøndalen - Aalesunds	0:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TWTWW
- Egersunds IK
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
22.11.25	Egersund - Ranheim	3:2 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
15.11.25	Egersund - Lyn	3:2 ✺
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
08.11.25	Mjøndalen - Egersund	1:2 ✺
01.11.25	Egersund - Hødd	0:0 ✺
25.10.25	Sogndal - Egersund	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Adeccoligaen
31.08.25	Aalesunds - Egersund	2:3
22.07.25	Egersund - Aalesunds	2:2
27.07.24	Aalesunds - Egersund	2:3
20.04.24	Egersund - Aalesunds	3:1

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