Match Info

Challenge League - Round 26

Date: 13 March 2026, Friday

Location: Stadion Brügglifeld (Aarau)

Referee: Wolfensberger S. (Sui)

Where to Watch on TV:


Switzerland	Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1, Blue Zoom


	Aarau		Vaduz

	1	X	2
	2.22	3.65	2.72
	2.2	3.76	3.03
	2.18	3.86	2.89	Watch
	2.1	3.5	2.9
	2.14	3.73	2.99	Watch
	2.25	3.5	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.25)	3.67 ↑ (3.5)	2.82 ↑ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aarau
42.2%

Draw
25.1%

Vaduz
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

24.8%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

24.1%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aarau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Vaduz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aarau than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vaduz than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	35.7%	21.4%

Aarau - Vaduz Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Aarau will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Vaduz will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aarau: 17% – 68.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Aarau (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 4.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hubel M. (G) 15. Muller S. 5. Acquah D. 2. Thaler M. (C) 29. Dickenmann M. 13. Zoukit N. 23. Frokaj L. 27. Obexer L. 10. Fazliu V. 11. Vladi S. 9. Filet E.	25. Schaffran L. (G) 4. Hasler N. (C) 6. Simani D. 5. Berisha L. 7. Schwizer D. 20. Mack L. 24. Gasser C. 8. Seiler S. 30. Dantas Fernandes R. 28. Cocic M. 17. Campos A.
Substitutes
18. Afriyie D. 32. Bobadilla R. 14. Chacon T. 25. Derbaci D. 3. Guzzo R. 30. Hirzel A. (G) 8. Jackle O. 17. Koide H. 31. Petit V.	12. Akinola A. 14. Beeli M. 15. Beyer B. 1. Buchel B. (G) 16. De Donno G. 26. Hammerich M. 27. Lang N. 9. Monsberger M. 3. Sawadogo M.
Coaches
Iacopetta B.	Schneider M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Vladi S. ⚽, Fazliu V. (A),
11', 2 - 0, Filet E. ⚽, Fazliu V. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Berisha L. ↓, Lang N. ↑,
54', Campos A. ↓, Akinola A. ↑,
60', Vladi S. ↓, Afriyie D. ↑,
70', Dantas Fernandes R. ↓, Beyer B. ↑,
77', Frokaj L. ↓, Jackle O. ↑,
77', Filet E. ↓, Koide H. ↑,
81', Gasser C. ↓, Hammerich M. ↑,
81', Seiler S. ↓, Monsberger M. ↑,
89', Fazliu V. ↓, Derbaci D. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aarau won 2.

In recent matches, Aarau has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Vaduz is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Aarau: Aliu I. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Vaduz: Eberhard M. (Inactive) Hasler N. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aarau won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 27:30. (average 1.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Aarau won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:14. (average 1.1:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Aarau	9	3	3	3	14:16	-2	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Aarau
Swiss Challenge League
06.03.26	Étoile Carouge - Aarau	0:3 ✺
27.02.26	Aarau - Rapperswil-Jona	5:3 ✺
20.02.26	Stade Nyonnais - Aarau	1:1 ✺
13.02.26	Lausanne Ouchy - Aarau	4:2 ✺
07.02.26	Aarau - Wil 1900	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WWTLT
- FC Vaduz
Swiss Challenge League
06.03.26	Rapperswil-Jona - Vaduz	0:0 ✺
01.03.26	Vaduz - Stade Nyonnais	1:0 ✺
22.02.26	Vaduz - Neuchâtel Xamax	1:0 ✺
13.02.26	Bellinzona - Vaduz	0:2 ✺
06.02.26	Vaduz - Étoile Carouge	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Challenge League
19.12.25	Vaduz - Aarau	3:2
13.09.25	Aarau - Vaduz	1:0
18.04.25	Aarau - Vaduz	2:2
23.02.25	Vaduz - Aarau	0:1
05.10.24	Aarau - Vaduz	0:0
20.09.24	Vaduz - Aarau	2:5
03.05.24	Vaduz - Aarau	2:1

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