Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 13 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado (Valencia)

Referee: Andrade Arreaga J. C. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 3
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Academia Puerto Cabello		FBC Melgar

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.2	2.7	Watch
	2.55	3.2	2.65
	2.75	2.9	2.75	Watch
	2.79	3.1	2.82
	2.82	3.06	2.72	Watch
	2.62	3.1	2.6	Watch
	2.8	3.19	2.62	Watch
	2.75	2.9	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↑ (2.55)	3.08 ↓ (3.18)	2.7 ↓ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Academia Puerto Cabello
34.6%

Draw
30.6%

FBC Melgar
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

29.5%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

29.3%

33.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Academia Puerto Cabello has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

FBC Melgar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Academia Puerto Cabello than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Academia Puerto Cabello - FBC Melgar Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Puerto Cabello will win (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Melgar will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Puerto Cabello (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Puerto Cabello (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Puerto Cabello (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
55. Romero L. (G) 30. Casiani L. 13. Peraza E. 19. Gonzalez O. 27. Linares H. 23. Hernandez O. 6. Cedeno J. 24. Contreras H. 43. Padron G. 8. Meza D. 25. Paredes J.	21. Cabezudo J. (G) 2. Barrios P. 33. Lazo M. 6. Gonzalez L. 13. Llontop M. 15. Orzan H. 8. Guzman L. 24. Tandazo W. 28. Arias A. 26. Cabrera Nakamura K. G. 17. Liza P.
Substitutes
14. Awudu Abdul 18. Echeverria J. 22. Herrera E. (G) 16. Injai M. 4. Mangana R. 7. Manzambi N. 28. Osorio D. 2. Rebolledo Y. 9. Tavares M. 29. Velasquez C.	20. Bernaola G. 27. Cabanillas N. 12. Caceda C. (G) 11. Castro F. 5. Deneumostier A. 39. Doy C. 10. Martinez T. 36. Nunez P. 4. Ramos E. 19. Rodriguez G. 77. Saba E. 22. Vivanco P.
Coaches
Faisca V.	Ribonetto W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
41', Linares H. ↓, Mangana R. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', 0 - 1, Cabrera Nakamura K. G. (Pen),
57', Hernandez O. ↓, Manzambi N. ↑,
62', Llontop M. 🟨,
63', Arias A. ↓, Bernaola G. ↑,
63', Guzman L. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
74', Meza D. ↓, Awudu Abdul ↑,
74', Padron G. ↓, Osorio D. ↑,
74', Liza P. ↓, Martinez T. ↑,
74', Paredes J. ↓, Tavares M. ↑,
83', Lazo M. ↓, Cabanillas N. ↑,
83', Cabrera Nakamura K. G. ↓, Ramos E. ↑,
84', Casiani L. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Puerto Cabello won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Academia Puerto Cabello - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 36.86%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Academia Puerto Cabello
Venezuelan Primera Division
10.05.25	Carabobo - Academia Puerto Cabello	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.25	Academia Puerto Cabello - Vasco da Gama	4:1 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
02.05.25	Academia Puerto Cabello - Deportivo Táchira	1:2 ✺
27.04.25	Academia Puerto Cabello - Portuguesa Acarígua	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
22.04.25	FBC Melgar - Academia Puerto Cabello	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 TWLWL
- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
10.05.25	Cienciano - FBC Melgar	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.05.25	FBC Melgar - Lanús	0:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
01.05.25	FBC Melgar - Comerciantes Unidos	1:1 ✺
27.04.25	Los Chankas - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
22.04.25	FBC Melgar - Academia Puerto Cabello	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
22.04.25	FBC Melgar - Academia Puerto Cabello	1:0

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