Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 22 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi (Arequipa)

Referee: Andrade Arreaga J. C. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Colombia	ESPN 2
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	DGO Latin America
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+


	FBC Melgar		Academia Puerto Cabello

	1	X	2
	1.36	5	8	Watch
	1.36	5	7.75
	1.33	5	9	Watch
	1.34	5.21	9.77
	1.35	4.96	9.08	Watch
	1.35	4.8	8	Watch
	1.36	4.9	8.2	Watch
	1.33	5	9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↑ (1.32)	4.98 ↑ (4.78)	8.6 ↓ (9.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

FBC Melgar
70.1%

Draw
18.9%

Academia Puerto Cabello
11%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.9%

19.6%

9.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

75.4%

18.4%

8.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Academia Puerto Cabello has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for FBC Melgar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Academia Puerto Cabello than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

FBC Melgar - Academia Puerto Cabello Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Melgar will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Puerto Cabello will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Caceda C. (G) 33. Lazo M. 2. Barrios P. 4. Ramos E. 13. Llontop M. 15. Orzan H. 7. Bordacahar C. 24. Tandazo W. 26. Cabrera Nakamura K. G. 8. Guzman L. 11. Castro F.	55. Romero L. (G) 30. Casiani L. 13. Peraza E. 15. Mbaye M. 19. Gonzalez O. 6. Cedeno J. 24. Contreras H. 14. Awudu Abdul 18. Echeverria J. 43. Padron G. 7. Manzambi N.
Substitutes
28. Arias A. 25. Barreda M. 20. Bernaola G. 27. Cabanillas N. 21. Cabezudo J. (G) 5. Deneumostier A. 6. Gonzalez L. 17. Liza P. 10. Martinez T. 19. Rodriguez G. 77. Saba E. 22. Vivanco P.	20. Guerrero R. 23. Hernandez O. 22. Herrera E. (G) 16. Injai M. 17. Khelifi S. 27. Linares H. 4. Mangana R. 8. Meza D. 28. Osorio D. 25. Paredes J. 11. Rojas R. 9. Tavares M.
Coaches
Ribonetto W.	Faisca V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', Mbaye M. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Barrios P. ⚽, Cabrera Nakamura K. G. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Guzman L. 🟥,
61', Echeverria J. ↓, Paredes J. ↑,
61', Awudu Abdul ↓, Tavares M. ↑,
66', Castro F. ↓, Liza P. ↑,
72', Peraza E. 🟨,
72', Casiani L. ↓, Linares H. ↑,
73', Mbaye M. ↓, Mangana R. ↑,
80', Manzambi N. ↓, Osorio D. ↑,
83', Orzan H. ↓, Arias A. ↑,
83', Cabrera Nakamura K. G. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
89', Bordacahar C. ↓, Gonzalez L. ↑,

Preview

Melgar is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Puerto Cabello is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Melgar is the unquestionable favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
18.04.25	FBC Melgar - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:2 ✺
13.04.25	Universitario de Deportes - FBC Melgar	4:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.04.25	Lanús - FBC Melgar	3:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
05.04.25	FBC Melgar - ADT Tarma	4:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
02.04.25	FBC Melgar - Vasco da Gama	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLLWT
- Academia Puerto Cabello
Venezuelan Primera Division
18.04.25	Estudiantes de Mérida - Academia Puerto Cabello	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Academia Puerto Cabello - Deportivo Táchira	3:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.25	Vasco da Gama - Academia Puerto Cabello	1:0 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
05.04.25	Deportivo La Guaira - Academia Puerto Cabello	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
03.04.25	Academia Puerto Cabello - Lanús	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LWLTT

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