Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 7 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado (Valencia)

Referee: Mendez J. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, DSports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	DGO Latin America, ESPN 2 South, ESPN 5 South
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	DSports 1


	Academia Puerto Cabello		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	5.75	4	1.57	Watch
	5.5	3.7	1.62
	6	4	1.53	Watch
	6.09	4.01	1.55
	6.18	3.95	1.57	Watch
	5	3.5	1.62	Watch
	5.57	4.03	1.6	Watch
	6	4	1.53
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.76 ↑ (4.39)	3.9 ↑ (3.66)	1.57 ↓ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Academia Puerto Cabello
16.3%

Draw
24.1%

Vasco da Gama
59.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.4%

25.6%

53%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.8%

24.9%

54.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Academia Puerto Cabello has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Academia Puerto Cabello's form might have worsened.

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vasco da Gama's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Academia Puerto Cabello than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vasco da Gama, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	9.1%	90.9%

Academia Puerto Cabello - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Vasco (2.12) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: Vasco da Gama will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Vasco da Gama will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Vasco (votes: 8 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
55. Romero L. (G) 30. Casiani L. 13. Peraza E. 15. Mbaye M. 27. Linares H. 20. Guerrero R. 6. Cedeno J. 24. Contreras H. 43. Padron G. 8. Meza D. 25. Paredes J.	1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 38. Joao Victor 44. Luiz Gustavo 6. Lucas Piton 25. Hugo Moura 85. Mateus Carvalho 3. Tche Tche 11. Coutinho 77. Rayan 99. Vegetti P. (C)
Substitutes
12. Alleyne R. (G) 14. Awudu Abdul 18. Echeverria J. 19. Gonzalez O. 23. Hernandez O. 22. Herrera E. (G) 16. Injai M. 4. Mangana R. 7. Manzambi N. 28. Osorio D. 11. Rojas R. 9. Tavares M.	28. Adson 90. Alex Teixeira 45. Augusto L. 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 15. Garre B. 8. Jair 29. Lucas Oliveira 17. Moreira N. 18. Paulinho Paula 2. Rodriguez J. 20. Sforza J. 12. Victor Luis
Coaches
Faisca V.	Felipe Loureiro

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
28', 1 - 0, Paredes J. (Pen),
38', 1 - 1, Joao Victor ⚽, Lucas Piton (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
50', 2 - 1, Padron G. ⚽, Paredes J. (A),
55', Mateus Carvalho ↓, Paulinho Paula ↑,
55', Tche Tche ↓, Moreira N. ↑,
56', Mbaye M. 🟨,
58', Paulinho Paula 🟨,
60', 3 - 1, Guerrero R. ⚽, Meza D. (A),
65', Guerrero R. ↓, Awudu Abdul ↑,
65', 4 - 1, Paredes J. ⚽, Padron G. (A),
69', Rayan ↓, Adson ↑,
73', Linares H. ↓, Gonzalez O. ↑,
74', Meza D. ↓, Manzambi N. ↑,
74', Paredes J. ↓, Hernandez O. ↑,
78', Joao Victor 🟨,
79', Paulo Henrique ↓, Garre B. ↑,
79', Coutinho ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
81', Contreras H. ↓, Echeverria J. ↑,

Preview

In recent matches, Puerto Cabello has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Vasco has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Vasco may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Vasco is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Puerto Cabello won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Academia Puerto Cabello
Venezuelan Primera Division
02.05.25	Academia Puerto Cabello - Deportivo Táchira	1:2 ✺
27.04.25	Academia Puerto Cabello - Portuguesa Acarígua	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
22.04.25	FBC Melgar - Academia Puerto Cabello	1:0 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
18.04.25	Estudiantes de Mérida - Academia Puerto Cabello	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Academia Puerto Cabello - Deportivo Táchira	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWLLW
- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
04.05.25	Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.05.25	Operário Ferroviario - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.04.25	Cruzeiro - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
22.04.25	Vasco da Gama - Lanús	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.04.25	Vasco da Gama - Flamengo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
08.04.25	Vasco da Gama - Academia Puerto Cabello	1:0

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