Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 16

Date: 21 June 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Huancayo (Huancayo)

Referee: Espinoza M. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com


	Sport Huancayo		FBC Melgar

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.8	4.2	Watch
	1.93	3.2	3.4
				Watch
	1.74	3.95	4.84
				Watch
	2.3	3.25	2.8
	1.92	3.74	3.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.61)	3.59 ↑ (3.25)	3.84 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sport Huancayo
49%

Draw
26.3%

FBC Melgar
24.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

29%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

30%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sport Huancayo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sport Huancayo's performance.

FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and FBC Melgar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Huancayo than the current prediction. (-14.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sport Huancayo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that FBC Melgar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	11.1%	11.1%

Sport Huancayo - FBC Melgar Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Huancayo will win (votes: 13 - 76.5%). Melgar will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Huancayo: 56.3% – 96.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Huancayo (1.76) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sport Huancayo will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Huancayo (votes: 9 - 90%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Zamudio A. (G) 20. Madrid J. 4. Barreda J. 92. Murillo Y. 2. Angeles H. 80. Carabano D. 22. Salcedo R. 28. Fernandez E. 11. Sanguinetti J. 10. Lujan N. 9. de Jesus M.	21. Cabezudo J. (G) 33. Lazo M. 5. Deneumostier A. 6. Gonzalez L. 13. Llontop M. 15. Orzan H. 24. Tandazo W. 10. Martinez T. 28. Arias A. 8. Guzman L. 25. Barreda M.
Substitutes
16. Barboza S. 7. Carranza M. 8. Herrera J. 19. Huaccha R. 23. Magallanes P. 25. Perez A. 89. Posito J. 33. Solis C. (G) 17. Villar L.	27. Cabanillas N. 12. Caceda C. (G) 39. Doy C. 41. Estela M. 4. Ramos E. 19. Rodriguez G. 77. Saba E. 22. Vivanco P.
Coaches
Pellejero R.	Ribonetto W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, Arias A. ⚽, Lazo M. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Fernandez E. ↓, Carranza M. ↑,
58', 0 - 2, Guzman L. ⚽, Lazo M. (A),
60', Lujan N. ↓, Posito J. ↑,
61', Madrid J. ↓, Barboza S. ↑,
68', de Jesus M. ↓, Huaccha R. ↑,
68', Carabano D. ↓, Magallanes P. ↑,
69', Guzman L. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Magallanes P. (Pen),
76', 2 - 2, Barreda J. ⚽,
82', Llontop M. ↓, Cabanillas N. ↑,
82', Arias A. ↓, Saba E. ↑,
82', Posito J. 🟨,
87', Lazo M. ↓, Ramos E. ↑,
87', Barreda M. ↓, Estela M. ↑,
87', Cabanillas N. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Huancayo won 1.

Huancayo is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Melgar has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Huancayo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Huancayo: Ccorahua A. (Abdominal strain)

There will not play in Melgar: Bordacahar C. (Knee Injury) Cuesta B. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Huancayo: Gaona M. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Huancayo won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 24:37. (average 1.2:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Huancayo won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:14. (average 1.3:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sport Huancayo
Peruvian Liga 1
14.06.25	Alianza Lima - Sport Huancayo	0:0 ✺
18.05.25	Sport Huancayo - Sport Boys	1:0 ✺
12.05.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Sport Huancayo	0:1 ✺
02.05.25	Sport Huancayo - Atlético Grau	3:0 ✺
28.04.25	Cienciano - Sport Huancayo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 TWWWL
- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
14.06.25	FBC Melgar - Sport Boys	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
27.05.25	Vasco da Gama - FBC Melgar	3:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
23.05.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
18.05.25	FBC Melgar - Atlético Grau	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
13.05.25	Academia Puerto Cabello - FBC Melgar	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
27.10.24	Sport Huancayo - FBC Melgar	2:4
18.05.24	FBC Melgar - Sport Huancayo	4:1
27.08.23	FBC Melgar - Sport Huancayo	1:3
09.04.23	Sport Huancayo - FBC Melgar	1:1
23.07.22	FBC Melgar - Sport Huancayo	1:0
19.02.22	Sport Huancayo - FBC Melgar	3:0
18.07.21	Sport Huancayo - FBC Melgar	0:3

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