Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - QUALIFICATION - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 21 February 2024, Wednesday

Location: Complejo Deportivo Socialista (Carabobo)

Referee: da Silva Machado B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Brazil	ESPN 4
Portugal	Sport TV


	Academia Puerto Cabello		Nacional Montevideo

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.1	2.3	Watch
	3.1	3.2	2.3
	3.1	3.2	2.3	Watch
	3.35	3.1	2.27
	3.31	3.11	2.38
	3	3.1	2.25	Watch
	3.17	3.18	2.3	Watch
	3.15	3.15	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.17 ↑ (2.85)	3.14 ↓ (3.17)	2.3 ↓ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Academia Puerto Cabello
29.5%

Draw
29.8%

Nacional Montevideo
40.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

28.9%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

28.4%

38.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Academia Puerto Cabello has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Academia Puerto Cabello than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

Academia Puerto Cabello - Nacional Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Puerto Cabello will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Nacional will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Schiavone G. (G) 5. Silva K. (C) 4. Rivero C. 32. Moreno C. 28. Cobos F. 77. Celis R. 23. Congo Y. 22. Bravo F. 11. Rojas R. 99. Okitokandjo S. 7. Fedor M.	12. Mejia L. (G) 14. Lozano L. 3. Izquierdo J. 23. Polenta D. (C) 11. Baez Corradi G. 10. Pereyra M. 26. Sanabria L. 16. Castro A. 7. Galeano A. 20. Carneiro G. 30. Ebere C.
Substitutes
16. Bahachille A. 6. Cedeno J. 3. Conde Chourio O. I. 29. Covea M. 2. Ferreira E. 20. Guerrero R. 9. Hernandez L. 8. Lugo W. 24. Monjes G. 19. Romero A. 55. Romero L. (G) 18. Yendis J.	13. Antoni M. 9. Bentancourt R. 17. Ginella F. 19. Gonzalez G. 4. Haller R. 32. Martinez F. 8. Oliva C. 18. Recoba J. 21. Sanchez R. 25. Suarez I. (G) 2. Velazquez E. 22. Zabala D.
Coaches
Sanvicente N.	Recoba A.

Preview

1st leg.

Puerto Cabello in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Nacional is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Puerto Cabello could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Nacional will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Academia Puerto Cabello
Venezuelan Primera Division
17.02.24	Academia Puerto Cabello - Estudiantes de Mérida	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
13.02.24	Defensor Sporting - Academia Puerto Cabello	1:1 penalties ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
09.02.24	Portuguesa Acarígua - Academia Puerto Cabello	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.02.24	Academia Puerto Cabello - Defensor Sporting	3:2 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
02.02.24	Academia Puerto Cabello - Carabobo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.8 WWWWT
- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
16.02.24	Nacional Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
06.02.24	Liverpool Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Serie Rio de la Plata
23.01.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	0:2 ✺
19.01.24	Nacional Montevideo - Colo-Colo	0:1 ✺
17.01.24	Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WLWLW

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