Match Info

URUGUAY: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 5

Date: 8 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Gran Parque Central (Montevideo)


	Nacional Montevideo		River Plate Montevideo

	1	X	2
	1.29	5.25	8.5	Watch
	1.28	5.25	8.5
	1.28	5.4	8.6	Watch
	1.29	5.83	9.93
	1.3	5.29	9.45	Watch
	1.29	5	9.5
	1.3	5.33	8.63	Watch
	1.28	5.4	8.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.35)	5.34 ↑ (4.75)	8.96 ↑ (8.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Montevideo
72.2%

Draw
17.4%

River Plate Montevideo
10.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.3%

19.7%

11%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.2%

18.9%

10.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

River Plate Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

The ML Model estimate for Nacional Montevideo aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Nacional Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Mejia L. (G) 13. Ancheta E. 4. Coates S. (C) 29. Millan J. 11. Baez Corradi G. 6. Boggio L. 8. Oliva C. 16. Villalba Jaume L. M. 18. Recoba J. 7. Lopez N. 76. Herazo D.	25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 7. Quintana J. 3. Ramos N. 13. Almeida C. (C) 29. Camejo L. 15. Jourdan E. 8. Estol M. 10. Vera A. 14. De Leon F. 11. De Los Santos J. 18. Lopez I.
Substitutes
31. Amaro J. 26. Arady B. 15. Calione P. 17. Eduardo Vargas 32. Mederos R. 80. Otero R. 10. Pereyra M. 23. Polenta D. 77. Rodriguez N. 25. Suarez I. (G)	19. Barone F. 6. Cabrera R. 9. Correa T. 1. Frascarelli D. (G) 30. Inverso L. 27. Lopez I. 20. Mederos S. 26. Orono G. 2. Perez F. 23. Rodriguez F.
Coaches
Lasarte M.	Lopez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
6', 0 - 1, De Los Santos J. (Pen),
13', De Los Santos J. 🟨,
19', 1 - 1, Villalba Jaume L. M. ⚽,
22', Villalba Jaume L. M. 🟨,
28', Correa T. 🟨,
33', 1 - 2, Lopez I. ⚽,
35', 2 - 2, Lopez N. ⚽,
38', Oliva C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', Jourdan E. 🟨,
57', 3 - 2, Lopez N. ⚽,
59', Recoba J. 🟨,
59', Recoba J. ↓, Arady B. ↑,
59', Herazo D. ↓, Eduardo Vargas ↑,
68', Jourdan E. ↓, Lopez I. ↑,
69', Vera A. ↓, Correa T. ↑,
69', 3 - 3, Almeida C. ⚽,
75', Lopez I. 🟨,
75', Camejo L. ↓, Cabrera R. ↑,
77', Boggio L. ↓, Mederos R. ↑,
77', Villalba Jaume L. M. ↓, Otero R. ↑,
78', Lopez I. ↓, Barone F. ↑,
81', Frascarelli D. 🟨,
82', Lopez N. 🟨,
87', Correa Gonzalez F. N. 🟨,

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 6 and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Nacional won 2.

Nacional is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches River Plate is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Nacional could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Nacional is certain favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Nacional won 9 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 34:20 (average 1.7:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Nacional won 8 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 24:8 (average 2:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
22.02.25	Boston River - Nacional Montevideo	2:3 ✺
16.02.25	Progreso - Nacional Montevideo	1:5 ✺
09.02.25	Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
02.02.25	Montevideo City Torque - Nacional Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Super Cup
26.01.25	Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWTLW
- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
23.02.25	River Plate Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
16.02.25	Montevideo City Torque - River Plate Montevideo	2:1 ✺
08.02.25	River Plate Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	0:1 ✺
03.02.25	Cerro - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Friendly
21.01.25	River Plate Montevideo - Mexico	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
18.08.24	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	3:3
Copa Libertadores
07.05.24	Nacional Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	2:2
11.04.24	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	2:0
Uruguayan Primera Division
16.02.24	Nacional Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	2:1
04.11.23	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	0:3
26.03.23	Nacional Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	3:0
17.09.22	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	1:1

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