Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio - Round 5

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo María Mincheff de Lazaroff (Montevideo)

Referee: Burgos J. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+


	Danubio		Nacional Montevideo

	1	X	2
	4.50	3.40	1.70	Watch
	4.40	3.30	1.75
	4.25	3.40	1.79
	5.17	3.65	1.75
	4.29	3.47	1.84	Watch
	4.90	3.55	1.73
	4.89	3.51	1.73	Watch
	4.50	3.45	1.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.61 ↑ (3.6)	3.47 ↑ (3.25)	1.76 ↓ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Danubio
20.2%

Draw
26.9%

Nacional Montevideo
53%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.3%

28%

46.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Danubio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Danubio's form might have worsened.

Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nacional Montevideo's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	11.1%	55.6%

Danubio - Nacional Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Danubio will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Nacional will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - Nacional (2.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Nacional (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Goicoechea M. (C) 18. Balatti F. 2. Velazquez E. 4. Rinaldi M. 31. Cavanagh T. 10. Peralta M. 5. Millan J. 8. Rodriguez S. 6. Sosa L. 7. Cabrera E. 11. John Kleber	22. Martin A. (G) 13. Ancheta E. 4. Coates S. (C) 2. Rogel A. 5. Calvo F. 6. Boggio L. 36. Zuculini B. 10. Dos Santos A. 21. Candido C. 18. Nunez A. 9. Gomez M.
Substitutes
28. Femia E. 15. Figueroa E. 32. Martinez K. (G) 22. Montana A. 14. Pereira B. 3. Pereyra J. 26. Piriz D. 9. Silveira H. 38. Trasante J. 17. Velazquez A.	30. Barcia B. 15. Calione P. 29. Correa T. 56. Garcia Lantean J. I. 31. Martinez R. 1. Mejia L. (G) 23. Rodriguez L. 77. Rodriguez N. 11. Silvera M. 27. Veron T.
Coaches
Ramos L.	Bava J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Rogel A. 🟨,
12', Dos Santos A. ↓, Rodriguez L. ↑,
35', Rodriguez S. 🟨,
43', Rinaldi M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rogel A. ↓, Martinez R. ↑,
57', Candido C. 🟨,
58', Bava J. 🟨,
62', Candido C. ↓, Rodriguez N. ↑,
62', Nunez P. ↓, Barcia B. ↑,
66', John Kleber ↓, Silveira H. ↑,
66', Sosa L. ↓, Femia E. ↑,
74', Boggio L. ↓, Silvera M. ↑,
75', Velazquez E. 🟨,
77', Millan J. ↓, Trasante J. ↑,
88', Cabrera E. ↓, Figueroa E. ↑,
90+4', 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Danubio won 1.

Nacional is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Danubio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Nacional has had a series of home games.

In this match, Nacional is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Danubio won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 19:29. (average 1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Danubio won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:17. (average 0.8:1.4).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Nacional	9	5	2	2	13:9	4	17
13	Danubio	9	1	4	4	4:10	-6	7

Last Results with these Odds

Danubio - the odds 3.6 are the expected chance of winning is 25.29%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
05.07.26	Danubio - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:1 ✺
05.06.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Danubio	0:0 ✺
30.05.26	Danubio - Progreso	1:2 ✺
18.05.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Danubio	3:1 ✺
09.05.26	Danubio - Albion Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TTLLL
- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.06.26	Nacional Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:1 ✺
31.05.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Nacional Montevideo	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
26.05.26	Nacional Montevideo - Coquimbo Unido	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
23.05.26	Nacional Montevideo - Albion Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
20.05.26	Nacional Montevideo - Universitario de Deportes	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
25.04.26	Nacional Montevideo - Danubio	1:2
12.10.25	Danubio - Nacional Montevideo	0:0
29.06.25	Nacional Montevideo - Danubio	3:2
13.04.25	Nacional Montevideo - Danubio	2:0
27.11.24	Danubio - Nacional Montevideo	0:0
13.07.24	Danubio - Nacional Montevideo	0:6
25.05.24	Nacional Montevideo - Danubio	1:0

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