Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 14

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra (Coimbra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Académica Coimbra		Lusitano GC

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.15	3.85
	2	3.27	3.78
	1.98	3.33	3.77	Watch
	1.85	3.25	3.9
	1.82	3.57	4.2	Watch
	1.77	3.2	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (2.06)	3.3 ↑ (3.12)	3.96 ↑ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Académica Coimbra
48.9%

Draw
27.9%

Lusitano GC
23.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

29.2%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

28.8%

26.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Académica Coimbra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Lusitano GC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Académica Coimbra than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitano GC than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Académica Coimbra - Lusitano GC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Alves C. (G) 21. Candeias D. 11. Farias E. 15. Kaka 17. Marcos Paulo 6. Montez A. 4. Silva G. 5. Silva L. 93. Souza B. 3. Teixeira R. 14. Triana C.	22. Martins D. (G) 11. Almara F. 8. Baptista T. 14. Cande B. 53. Carvalho E. 30. Davou S. 80. Gomes A. 9. Lopes D. 5. Palancha T. 25. Pinto J. 4. Santana C.
Substitutes
9. Barbosa N. 28. Cascavel 18. Cuba 12. Gabriel Passos 23. Karseladze J. 1. Macedo N. (G) 8. Pereira F. 10. Pereira N. 7. Tiago Andre	29. Isnaba G. 36. Lima T. 44. Lourenco M. 12. Marcelo Valverde (G) 37. Monteiro R. 7. Sequeira G. 18. Soares Mendonca D. 77. Sonhi Y. 17. Vicente G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
29', 1 - 0, Silva L. (Penalty Awarded),
32', 🟨,
34', 2 - 0, Farias E. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
64', 2 - 1, Pinto J. (Penalty Awarded),
65', Candeias D. ↓, Cascavel ↑,
68', Gomes A. 🟨,
69', 🟨,
72', 🟨,
77', Triana C. ↓, Cuba ↑,
79', 🟨,
85', 🟨,
90+2', 3 - 1, ⚽,
90+7', 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: ) and 9 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: )).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Lusitano GC may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Académica is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Académica won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Académica Coimbra
Portuguese Liga 3
14.12.25	Belenenses - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Académica Coimbra - Mafra	3:3 ✺
29.11.25	União de Santarém - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
08.11.25	Académica Coimbra - 1 Dezembro	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Académica Coimbra - Caldas	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TTTTT
- Lusitano GC
Portuguese Liga 3
13.12.25	Atlético CP - Lusitano GC	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Lusitano GC - Belenenses	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	Mafra - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Covilhã - Lusitano GC	0:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
09.11.25	Lusitano GC - União de Santarém	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
11.10.25	Lusitano GC - Académica Coimbra	0:2

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