Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 11

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Mafra (Mafra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Mafra		Lusitano GC

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.05	2.88
	2.48	3.2	3.06
	2.08	3.17	3.57	Watch
	2.44	3.32	2.8	Watch
	2.36	2.9	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.04)	3.13 ↑ (3.05)	3.04 ↓ (3.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Mafra
39.8%

Draw
29.7%

Lusitano GC
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

29.9%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.5%

29.4%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mafra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Lusitano GC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lusitano GC's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mafra, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lusitano GC than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lusitano GC, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Mafra - Lusitano GC Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mafra (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Ribeiro L. (G) 5. Beni D. 2. Camara M. 90. Moreira R. 85. Neves L. 9. Niang M. 30. Ninte M. 6. Pinto R. (C) 13. Raposo C. 29. Rossi R. 46. Sambu B.	22. Martins D. (G) 10. Aguas M. 11. Almara F. 8. Baptista T. 53. Carvalho E. 30. Davou S. 36. Lima T. 9. Lopes D. 5. Palancha T. 25. Pinto J. 4. Santana C. (C)
Substitutes
39. Andrey 66. Ferreira J. 11. Goba Zakpa 8. Goncalves V. 19. Iheanacho S. 1. Lemos F. (G) 7. Matos R. 27. Precatado J. 23. Serra S.	18. Dionisio S. M. 80. Gomes A. 29. Isnaba G. 44. Lourenco M. 12. Marcelo Valverde (G) 37. Monteiro R. 24. Prego B. 7. Sequeira G. 77. Sonhi Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', 🟨,
37', Aguas M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', Moreira R. ↓, Goncalves V. ↑,
59', Neves L. ↓, Iheanacho S. ↑,
61', 1 - 0, Iheanacho S. ⚽,
70', 1 - 1, Almara F. ⚽, Pinto J. (A),
72', Baptista T. ↓, Gomes A. ↑,
73', Pinto J. 🟨,
76', Pinto R. ↓, Andrey ↑,
78', Lopes D. ↓, Isnaba G. ↑,
81', Almara F. 🟨,
88', Lima T. ↓, Monteiro R. ↑,
88', Almara F. ↓, Sonhi Y. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: ) and 5 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: )).

Mafra is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Lusitano GC has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lusitano GC may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Mafra will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Mafra won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 3
09.11.25	Belenenses - Mafra	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	Mafra - Atlético CP	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	União de Santarém - Mafra	1:2 ✺
11.10.25	Mafra - Amora	2:0 ✺
05.10.25	Mafra - 1 Dezembro	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWWWW
- Lusitano GC
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Covilhã - Lusitano GC	0:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
09.11.25	Lusitano GC - União de Santarém	1:0 ✺
01.11.25	Lusitano GC - 1 Dezembro	2:0 ✺
26.10.25	Caldas - Lusitano GC	2:1 ✺
11.10.25	Lusitano GC - Académica Coimbra	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
17.08.25	Lusitano GC - Mafra	4:1

Upcoming Matches