Match Info

Primera B - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday

Location: La Quema Stadium (Boulogne Sur Mer)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Acassuso		Deportivo Merlo

	1	X	2
	3	2.8	2.55
	3.03	2.78	2.51	Watch
	2.8	2.62	2.7
	2.79	2.84	2.79	Watch
	3	2.8	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↑ (2.29)	2.77 ↓ (3)	2.62 ↓ (3.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Acassuso
31.5%

Draw
33.3%

Deportivo Merlo
35.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

31.1%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

31.9%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Acassuso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Acassuso's form might have worsened.

Deportivo Merlo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Deportivo Merlo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Acassuso than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Acassuso, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Merlo than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Deportivo Merlo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Acassuso - Deportivo Merlo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tursi F. (G) 4. Ponce J. 2. Serrizuela J. 6. Filippetto E. 3. Ruiz A. 7. Mino L. 5. Dubini K. (C) 8. De Stefano D. 10. Hermoso A. 11. Senn F. 9. Hernandez B.	1. Fernandez P. (G) 4. Jimenez A. (C) 2. Ibarra L. 6. Mendez E. 3. Aguerre F. 8. Ordano A. 5. Ojeda G. 10. Bernal T. 11. Sosa S. 9. Cao R. 7. Benega S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Senn F. ⚽,
30', Sosa S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Bernal T. 🟨,
59', Bernal T. ↓, Zeineddin N. ↑,
63', Dubini K. ↓, Dordoni B. ↑,
66', Ibarra L. ↓, Arellano L. ↑,
72', Jimenez A. ↓, Perez S. ↑,
73', Senn F. ↓, Habib T. ↑,
73', Hermoso A. ↓, Ramirez U. ↑,
77', De Stefano D. 🟨,
77', 🟨,
78', Etcheverri R. 🟨,
79', Hernandez B. ↓, Escalante D. ↑,
79', Mino L. ↓, Nicolaievsky F. ↑,
85', Escalante D. 🟨,
86', Mendez E. 🟨,
89', Sosa S. 🟥,
90', 🟨,
90+2', Nicolaievsky F. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 14 and 7).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Acassuso won 1.

Acassuso is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Deportivo Merlo is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Deportivo Merlo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Acassuso won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7:8 (average 0.7:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Acassuso won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:5 (average 0.6:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Atlético Acassuso
Argentinian Primera B
07.04.25	Sportivo Dock Sud - Acassuso	3:1 ✺
29.03.25	Acassuso - Villa San Carlos	2:1 ✺
22.03.25	Real Pilar - Acassuso	2:0 ✺
19.03.25	Acassuso - Brown de Adrogué	0:1 ✺
15.03.25	Acassuso - UAI Urquiza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWLLT
- Deportivo Merlo
Argentinian Primera B
05.04.25	Deportivo Merlo - Brown de Adrogué	0:1 ✺
28.03.25	Argentino de Merlo - Deportivo Merlo	0:1 ✺
22.03.25	Deportivo Merlo - Argentino de Quilmes	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Villa Dálmine - Deportivo Merlo	0:2 ✺
08.03.25	Deportivo Merlo - Deportivo Flandria	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.5 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera B
07.09.24	Acassuso - Deportivo Merlo	0:1
20.04.24	Deportivo Merlo - Acassuso	0:0
23.09.23	Acassuso - Deportivo Merlo	1:1
20.05.23	Deportivo Merlo - Acassuso	0:2
11.06.22	Acassuso - Deportivo Merlo	1:1
12.02.22	Deportivo Merlo - Acassuso	1:0
04.09.21	Deportivo Merlo - Acassuso	0:1

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