Match Info

A-League Women - Round 11

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Referee: Cooper I. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Channel 10, Paramount+
Hong-kong	HOY TV
New-zealand	Sky Sport 3
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 2
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Adelaide United		Central Coast Mariners

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2	3.3	3.1
	2.05	3.4	3.05
	2.07	3.79	3.16	Watch
	2	3.3	3
	2.04	3.42	3.14	Watch
	2	3.6	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.62)	3.47 ↓ (4.53)	3.09 ↓ (4.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Adelaide United
44.6%

Draw
26.1%

Central Coast Mariners
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.4%

20.9%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64%

22.9%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Adelaide United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Adelaide United's form might have worsened.

Central Coast Mariners has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Central Coast Mariners's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adelaide United than the current prediction. (+19.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Adelaide United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Central Coast Mariners than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Central Coast Mariners, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	60%	0%

Adelaide United - Central Coast Mariners Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Adelaide United will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Adelaide United (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Adelaide United (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Adelaide United (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Melegh I. (G) 17. Tolland Z. 13. Tonkin E. 3. McNamara M. 2. Hodgson E. 9. Zois P. 6. Taranto M. 15. Taranto A. 22. Healy E. 8. Condon E. 10. Dawber C.	15. Grove A. (G) 5. Martin A. 4. Thew B. 18. King 23. Baumann L. 22. Trimis P. 7. Prakash A. 14. Kraszula G. 26. Di Sipio I. 11. Rasmussen A. 6. Gomez I.
Substitutes
11. Hodgson I. 21. Jenkins C. (G) 7. Makris E. 5. Morgan S. 4. Murray H. 23. Worts F.	13. Buchanan K. 9. Farrow M. 25. Hughes B. 10. Levin T. 16. Quilligan T. 30. Varley S. (G)
Coaches
Tsiounis T.	Babington K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', 1 - 0, Condon E. ⚽, Dawber C. (A),
50', Taranto A. 🟨,
58', Gomez I. 🟨,
60', Di Sipio I. ↓, Hughes B. ↑,
61', Healy E. ↓, Hodgson I. ↑,
62', Hodgson E. 🟨,
72', Prakash A. ↓, Levin T. ↑,
78', Condon E. ↓, Worts F. ↑,
89', Thew B. ↓, Farrow M. ↑,
90+4', Dawber C. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 10 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League Women (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In recent matches, Adelaide United has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Central Coast is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Adelaide United may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Adelaide United could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Adelaide United won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Adelaide United won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Adelaide United Women
Australian A-League Women
27.12.25	Adelaide United - Western Sydney Wanderers	5:2 ✺
21.12.25	Perth Glory - Adelaide United	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Adelaide United - Brisbane Roar	1:3 ✺
14.11.25	Adelaide United - Canberra United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLLLW
- Central Coast Mariners Women
Australian A-League Women
31.12.25	Central Coast Mariners - Brisbane Roar	3:2 ✺
27.12.25	Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory	3:3 ✺
20.12.25	Canberra United - Central Coast Mariners	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Western Sydney Wanderers - Central Coast Mariners	1:2 ✺
07.12.25	Central Coast Mariners - Newcastle Jets	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.3 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League Women
01.11.25	Central Coast Mariners - Adelaide United	3:0
08.03.25	Adelaide United - Central Coast Mariners	1:0
04.01.25	Central Coast Mariners - Adelaide United	0:1
03.03.24	Central Coast Mariners - Adelaide United	2:0
20.10.23	Adelaide United - Central Coast Mariners	1:2

Adelaide United - Central Coast Mariners: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide