Match Info

A-League Women - Round 21

Date: 27 March 2026, Friday

Location: ServiceFM Stadium (Adelaide)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	10 Drama, Channel 10, Paramount+
Hong-kong	HOY TV
New-zealand	Sky Sport 4
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 2
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Adelaide United		Newcastle Jets

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.88	3.85	3.1
	1.97	4.33	3.32
	1.91	4.34	3.23	Watch
	1.85	3.5	3.2
	1.89	3.95	3.48	Watch
	1.55	4.2	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.55)	4.03 ↓ (4.2)	3.49 ↓ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Adelaide United
50.4%

Draw
23%

Newcastle Jets
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.6%

21.6%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.3%

20.6%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Adelaide United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Adelaide United's form might have worsened.

Newcastle Jets has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Newcastle Jets's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adelaide United than the current prediction. (+10.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Adelaide United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle Jets than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Newcastle Jets, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Adelaide United - Newcastle Jets Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Jenkins C. (G) 17. Tolland Z. 13. Tonkin E. 16. Holmes D. 2. Hodgson E. 5. Morgan S. 25. Gooch L. 27. Dewey S. 11. Hodgson I. (C) 10. Dawber C. 8. Condon E.	50. Boertje A. (G) 3. Cicco C. 4. Prior N. 2. Wilson J. 26. Allan J. 10. Copus-Brown L. (C) 18. Hoban S. 23. Karipidis Z. 44. Brown K. 14. Ayres M. 11. Lancaster C.
Substitutes
19. Bowler K. 18. Millar A. (G) 14. Nicholas M. 12. Rossi C.	32. Adams C. 13. Allan L. 15. Bates E. 35. Dunbar L. (G) 9. Johnson H. M. 5. Page O.
Coaches
Tsiounis T.	Hoyle S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Brown K. ⚽,
41', 1 - 1, Hodgson I. ⚽, Dawber C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
55', Dewey S. ↓, Rossi C. ↑,
55', 1 - 2, Allan J. ⚽, Hoban S. (A),
75', Lancaster C. ↓, Johnson H. M. ↑,
79', Hodgson I. ↓, Bowler K. ↑,
81', Allan J. ↓, Allan L. ↑,
83', 1 - 3, Brown K. ⚽, Johnson H. M. (A),
84', Condon E. ↓, Nicholas M. ↑,
87', Brown K. ↓, Page O. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League Women (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Adelaide United won 2.

Adelaide United is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Newcastle Jets's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Newcastle Jets may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Adelaide United has had a series of away games.

In this match, Adelaide United is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Adelaide United won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 32:36. (average 1.6:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Adelaide United won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:18. (average 1.4:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Adelaide United Women
Australian A-League Women
21.03.26	Canberra United - Adelaide United	3:2 ✺
18.03.26	Melbourne City - Adelaide United	0:0 ✺
13.03.26	Adelaide United - Perth Glory	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Brisbane Roar - Adelaide United	0:2 ✺
08.02.26	Western Sydney Wanderers - Adelaide United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 LTWWW
- Newcastle Jets Women
Australian A-League Women
20.03.26	Brisbane Roar - Newcastle Jets	4:2 ✺
13.03.26	Newcastle Jets - Sydney FC	3:1 ✺
21.02.26	Newcastle Jets - Perth Glory	2:3 ✺
13.02.26	Western Sydney Wanderers - Newcastle Jets	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Melbourne Victory - Newcastle Jets	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League Women
21.01.26	Newcastle Jets - Adelaide United	1:2
08.01.25	Newcastle Jets - Adelaide United	3:3
08.12.24	Adelaide United - Newcastle Jets	2:0
29.03.24	Adelaide United - Newcastle Jets	0:8
31.12.23	Newcastle Jets - Adelaide United	3:1
17.03.23	Adelaide United - Newcastle Jets	2:2
30.12.22	Newcastle Jets - Adelaide United	2:0

Adelaide United - Newcastle Jets: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide