Match Info

A-League Women - Round 16

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: John McEwen Reserve (Shepparton)

Referee: Ghirardello G. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Channel 10, Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	HOY TV
New-zealand	Sky Sport 9
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 5
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Melbourne Victory		Newcastle Jets

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.5	4.15	4.85	Watch
	1.55	4.68	5.04
	1.54	4.69	4.96	Watch
	1.53	4	4.4
	1.61	3.93	5.19	Watch
	1.52	4.25	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↑ (1.38)	4.28 ↓ (4.68)	4.87 ↓ (6.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Victory
59.6%

Draw
21.5%

Newcastle Jets
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.7%

19.3%

14.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.8%

18.4%

14.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Victory has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Melbourne Victory's form might have worsened.

Newcastle Jets has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Victory than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Melbourne Victory, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle Jets than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Melbourne Victory - Newcastle Jets Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Newbon C. (G) 27. Curtis R. 3. Bunge C. 18. Morrison K. (C) 4. Blissett C. 5. Sakalis S. 23. Lowe R. 6. Ray T. 10. Pollicina R. 7. O'Grady E. 16. White K.	12. Ritchie G. (G) 3. Cicco C. 4. Prior N. (C) 15. Bates E. 44. Brown K. 18. Hoban S. 8. Dundas E. 11. Lancaster C. 14. Ayres M. 30. Collins A. 26. Allan J.
Substitutes
9. Furphy H. 66. Jancevski A. 81. Maher G. 24. Pickett L. 8. Saveska S. 30. Woodward P. (G)	13. Allan L. 50. Boertje A. (G) 7. Breier I. 10. Copus-Brown L. 9. Johnson H. M. 2. Wilson J.
Coaches
Hopkins J.	Hoyle S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Blissett C. 🟨,
39', Lowe R. 🟨,
41', Prior N. 🟨,
45+1', O'Grady E. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
51', Sakalis S. 🟨,
53', Curtis R. 🟨,
63', O'Grady E. ↓, Furphy H. ↑,
63', Blissett C. ↓, Jancevski A. ↑,
64', 1 - 0, Cicco C. (Own goal),
68', Bunge C. 🟨,
74', 1 - 1, Brown K. (Penalty Awarded),
74', Curtis R. ↓, Saveska S. ↑,
74', Brown K. ↓, Allan L. ↑,
74', Lowe R. ↓, Pickett L. ↑,
82', 2 - 1, Furphy H. ⚽,
85', Ayres M. ↓, Copus-Brown L. ↑,
85', Hoban S. ↓, Johnson H. M. ↑,
90+2', Pollicina R. ↓, Maher G. ↑,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 7 and 9)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 4.

Melbourne Victory is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Newcastle Jets has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Melbourne Victory may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Melbourne Victory is the obvious favorite.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 13 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 45:22. (average 2.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne Victory won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 26:17. (average 2.6:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Victory Women
Australian A-League Women
31.01.26	Canberra United - Melbourne Victory	3:1 ✺
25.01.26	Melbourne Victory - Sydney FC	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Adelaide United - Melbourne Victory	2:1 ✺
11.01.26	Melbourne Victory - Brisbane Roar	0:1 ✺
27.12.25	Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLLT
- Newcastle Jets Women
Australian A-League Women
01.02.26	Newcastle Jets - Wellington Phoenix	1:5 ✺
21.01.26	Newcastle Jets - Adelaide United	1:2 ✺
16.01.26	Melbourne City - Newcastle Jets	1:3 ✺
13.01.26	Sydney FC - Newcastle Jets	1:2 ✺
10.01.26	Newcastle Jets - Central Coast Mariners	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.5 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League Women
19.12.25	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne Victory	1:3
21.03.25	Melbourne Victory - Newcastle Jets	4:3
11.01.25	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne Victory	0:2
23.03.24	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne Victory	3:2
11.11.23	Melbourne Victory - Newcastle Jets	4:0
18.12.22	Melbourne Victory - Newcastle Jets	5:2
08.02.22	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne Victory	0:1

Melbourne Victory - Newcastle Jets: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide