Match Info

Serie D - Group H - Round 18

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Afragolese		Città di Fasano

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.3	2.4
	2.48	3.35	2.42
	2.53	3.39	2.48	Watch
	2.52	3.22	2.47
	2.5	3.33	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↑ (2.47)	3.32 ↓ (3.48)	2.45 ↑ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Afragolese
36.1%

Draw
27.2%

Città di Fasano
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

26%

37.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

25.5%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Afragolese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Città di Fasano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Afragolese than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Città di Fasano than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Afragolese - Città di Fasano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
30', 1 - 0, Ferrara A. ⚽,
37', 1 - 1, Corvino V. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', 1 - 2, Corvino V. ⚽,
88', 2 - 2, Zerbo G. ⚽,
89', 2 - 3, Penza E. ⚽,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group H (Play Offs: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group H (Play Offs: )).

Recent performances by Afragolese have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Fasano has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Afragolese won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.3:1).

Including home match between the teams, Afragolese won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Afragolese 1944
Italian Serie D - Group H
21.12.25	Afragolese - Francavilla	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	Gravina - Afragolese	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Real Normanna - Afragolese	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	Afragolese - Paganese	2:0 ✺
23.11.25	Virtus Francavilla - Afragolese	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LLTWT
- US Città di Fasano
Italian Serie D - Group H
21.12.25	Paganese - Città di Fasano	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Città di Fasano - Real Normanna	0:2 ✺
07.12.25	Martina Calcio - Città di Fasano	3:2 ✺
30.11.25	Città di Fasano - Barletta	0:0 ✺
23.11.25	Ferrandina - Città di Fasano	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group H
07.09.25	Città di Fasano - Afragolese	2:0
23.04.23	Città di Fasano - Afragolese	0:1
11.12.22	Afragolese - Città di Fasano	0:1

Afragolese - Città di Fasano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide