Match Info

Serie D - Group H - Round 14

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday


	Afragolese		Paganese

	1	X	2
	2.68	3.15	2.38
	2.71	3.20	2.43	Watch
	2.66	3.13	2.4
	2.75	3.14	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.7 ↓ (2.96)	3.16 ↓ (3.28)	2.4 ↑ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Afragolese
33.6%

Draw
28.7%

Paganese
37.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.6%

27.7%

41.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

27.2%

42.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Afragolese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Paganese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Afragolese than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paganese than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Afragolese - Paganese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
37', 1 - 0, Montaperto G. ⚽,
45+4', 2 - 0, Gioielli F. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group H (Play Offs: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion).

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Afragolese 1944
Italian Serie D - Group H
23.11.25	Virtus Francavilla - Afragolese	0:0 ✺
16.11.25	Afragolese - Martina Calcio	1:0 ✺
09.11.25	Fidelis Andria - Afragolese	2:1 ✺
26.10.25	Acerrana - Afragolese	0:4 ✺
19.10.25	Afragolese - Barletta	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.9 TWLWW
- Paganese Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group H
23.11.25	Paganese - Real Normanna	1:0 ✺
16.11.25	Paganese - Ferrandina	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Martina Calcio - Paganese	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Paganese - Manfredonia	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	Barletta - Paganese	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WTWWT

Afragolese - Paganese: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide