Match Info

Serie D - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 12 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal Coaracy da Mata Fonseca (Arapiraca)


	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense		Ivinhema

	1	X	2
	1.24	5.00	10.50
	1.35	4.25	7.50
	1.26	4.92	12.14
	1.32	4.32	10.22	Watch
	1.24	4.75	11.00
	1.23	4.70	13.20
	1.4	3.66	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.43)	4.51 ↑ (3.83)	10.22 ↑ (7.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense
70.8%

Draw
20.3%

Ivinhema
8.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.5%

23.7%

12.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.8%

22.9%

12.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense's performance.

Ivinhema has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ivinhema than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Ivinhema Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Alex Bruno ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
59', 2 - 0, Higor Leite ⚽,
67', 3 - 0, Michel Douglas ⚽,
90', 4 - 0, Michel Douglas ⚽,

Preview

First leg result: 2-1.

ASA is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ivinhema's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ivinhema may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, ASA is the clear favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, ASA won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - the odds 1.43 are the expected chance of winning is 63.55%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense
Brazilian Serie D
06.07.26	Ivinhema - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	1:2 ✺
27.06.26	Sergipe - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	0:1 ✺
21.06.26	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Sergipe	1:1 ✺
14.06.26	Jacuipense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	1:1 ✺
30.05.26	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Clube Sociedade Esportiva	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWTTT
- Ivinhema FC
Brazilian Serie D
06.07.26	Ivinhema - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	1:2 ✺
29.06.26	Democrata GV - Ivinhema	1:1 ✺
21.06.26	Ivinhema - Democrata GV	3:1 ✺
14.06.26	Clube Recreativo e Atlético Catalano - Ivinhema	1:1 ✺
31.05.26	Ivinhema - Uberlândia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29.9 LTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
06.07.26	Ivinhema - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	1:2

Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Ivinhema: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide