Match Info

Serie D - Play Offs - 1/32-finals

Date: 21 June 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal Coaracy da Mata Fonseca (Arapiraca)


	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense		Sergipe

	1	X	2
	1.93	2.90	3.80
	1.95	2.92	3.95
	1.92	2.9	4.29
	2.01	2.76	4.42	Watch
	1.95	2.70	4.00
	1.95	2.88	4.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.11)	2.84 ↓ (2.95)	4.1 ↑ (3.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense
46.2%

Draw
31.7%

Sergipe
22%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.1%

30.8%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

30%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Sergipe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sergipe than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Sergipe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
43', 0 - 1, Thiago Santos ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90', 1 - 1, Douglas M. ⚽,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, ASA won 4.

ASA is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sergipe's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

ASA could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, ASA won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:19. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, ASA won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 1.5:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 43.15%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense
Brazilian Serie D
14.06.26	Jacuipense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	1:1 ✺
30.05.26	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Clube Sociedade Esportiva	0:0 ✺
23.05.26	CS Alagoano - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	1:1 ✺
16.05.26	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Juazeirense	1:0 ✺
10.05.26	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Atlético de Alagoinhas	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TTTWW
- CS Sergipe
Brazilian Serie D
14.06.26	Sergipe - Serra Branca	1:1 ✺
31.05.26	Decisão - Sergipe	3:2 ✺
23.05.26	Sergipe - Treze	0:1 ✺
16.05.26	Lagarto - Sergipe	1:1 ✺
09.05.26	Sergipe - Retrô Brasil	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
05.07.25	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Sergipe	2:2
10.05.25	Sergipe - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	1:2
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
04.01.25	Sergipe - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	0:2
Brazilian Serie D
21.07.24	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Sergipe	2:0
27.04.24	Sergipe - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	2:3
01.07.23	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Sergipe	1:1
27.05.23	Sergipe - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	2:1

Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Sergipe: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide