Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 17 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam)

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 3, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport Maximo 360, SuperSport OTT 2, SuperSport Variety 2
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, Q Arena Asia, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 4
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 4, Pickx+ Sports 4, Pickx+ Sports 5, Pickx+ Sports 5, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	HBO Max
Bulgaria	Voyo
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay, Viaplay Sport News
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
France	Canal+ Live 4
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	RTL+
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 5
Indonesia	beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	Amazon Prime Video
Kenya	Gotv
Malaysia	beIN SPORTS MAX, Canal+ Action, Canal+
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, TNT Sports
Mongolia	Premier Sports 4
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	SuperSport OTT 2
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	CANAL+ 360
Portugal	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1, Prima TV
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
South-africa	SuperSport OTT 2, SuperSport Variety 2
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 5
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 8, Blue Sport 8, Play RTS, Play RTS, RSI La 2, RTS 2, RTS 2, RTS Sport, RTS Sport, SRF 2, SRF 2, SRF Play, SRF Play, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	Tabii, TRT 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 5, TNT Sports Extra
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Network, Fubo Sports Network, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	VIX App


	Ajax		Inter Milan

	1	X	2
	5.25	4	1.62
	5.45	4.3	1.62
	3.89	3.9	1.93
	3.63	3.75	1.94	Watch
	3.6	3.7	1.95
	5.28	4.14	1.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.52 ↑ (3.63)	3.97 ↑ (3.75)	1.78 ↓ (1.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajax
21.4%

Draw
24.4%

Inter Milan
54.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26%

25.2%

48.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.4%

25.6%

47.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Inter Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Inter Milan's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Inter Milan than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Inter Milan, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.9%	9.6%	82.5%

Ajax - Inter Milan Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Inter (1.83) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +0.25 - Ajax (2.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Inter (1.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

Users Predictions: Inter Milan will win (91 of 109 users predict this - 83.49%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.52% – 90.46%. The data is statistically significant.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Inter Milan will win (46 of 56 users predict this - 82.14%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 61 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 6 - 9.8%). Inter (votes: 50 - 82%). Tie (votes: 5 - 8.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jaros V. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 4. Itakura K. 15. Baas Y. 5. Wijndal O. 6. Regeer Y. 18. Klaassen D. (C) 8. Taylor K. 17. Edvardsen O. 25. Weghorst W. 11. Godts M.	1. Sommer Y. (G) 6. de Vrij S. 25. Akanji M. 95. Bastoni A. 2. Dumfries D. 22. Mkhitaryan H. 23. Barella N. (C) 20. Calhanoglu H. 32. Dimarco F. 9. Thuram M. 94. Esposito F.
Substitutes
41. Alders G. 43. Bounida R. 9. Dolberg K. 28. Fitz-Jim K. 10. Gloukh O. 12. Heerkens J. (G) 16. McConnell J. 24. Mokio J. 7. Moro R. 22. Pasveer R. (G) 2. Rosa L. 37. Sutalo J.	15. Acerbi F. 31. Bisseck Y. 14. Bonny A. 30. Carlos Augusto 12. Di Gennaro R. (G) 17. Diouf A. 16. Frattesi D. 11. Luis Henrique 13. Martinez J. (G) 10. Martinez L. 8. Sucic P. 7. Zielinski P.
Coaches
Heitinga J.	Chivu C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', Thuram M. 🟨,
42', 0 - 1, Thuram M. ⚽, Calhanoglu H. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', 0 - 2, Thuram M. ⚽, Calhanoglu H. (A),
63', Taylor K. ↓, McConnell J. ↑,
63', Weghorst W. ↓, Dolberg K. ↑,
67', Mkhitaryan H. 🟨,
69', Mkhitaryan H. ↓, Frattesi D. ↑,
73', Baas Y. 🟨,
76', Godts M. ↓, Moro R. ↑,
76', Regeer Y. ↓, Gloukh O. ↑,
80', Barella N. ↓, Zielinski P. ↑,
80', Dimarco F. ↓, Carlos Augusto ↑,
84', Itakura K. ↓, Sutalo J. ↑,
87', Calhanoglu H. ↓, Sucic P. ↑,
87', Thuram M. ↓, Bonny A. ↑,

Preview

Ajax is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Inter has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Inter is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Ajax: Berghuis S. (Health problems) van den Boomen B. (Back Injury)

There will not play in Inter: Darmian M. (Back Injury) Palacios T. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Ajax: Bouwman A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Inter: Martinez L. (Back Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
13.09.25	Ajax - Zwolle	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	Volendam - Ajax	1:1 ✺
24.08.25	Ajax - Heracles Almelo	2:0 ✺
17.08.25	Go Ahead Eagles - Ajax	2:2 ✺
10.08.25	Ajax - Telstar	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WTWTW
- Inter Milan
Italian Serie A
13.09.25	Juventus - Inter Milan	4:3 ✺
31.08.25	Inter Milan - Udinese	1:2 ✺
25.08.25	Inter Milan - Torino	5:0 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.25	Inter Milan - Olympiacos Piraeus	2:0 ✺
12.08.25	Monza - Inter Milan	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLWWT

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