Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 3

Date: 24 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	Play Sports 3
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Ring
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, Sportsnet+, Sportsnet World, Sportsnet World Now
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
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Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
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Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra
Peru	Disney+
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Portugal	DAZN 4
Russia	TV Start, TV Start Triumph
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	Sport TV3
Spain	Gol Play, GolStadium
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Triller TV+


	Ajax		Heracles Almelo

	1	X	2
	1.2	6.5	13	Watch
	1.2	7.25	13
	1.21	6.9	12.5
	1.22	6.92	13.33
	1.21	6.58	11.60	Watch
	1.2	6.5	12
	1.24	6.58	12.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.21 ↑ (1.13)	6.75 ↓ (7.5)	12.55 ↓ (17)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajax
78.4%

Draw
14.1%

Heracles Almelo
7.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

82.2%

12.4%

5.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Heracles Almelo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	16.7%	5.6%

Ajax - Heracles Almelo Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Ajax will win (votes: 14 - 77.8%). Heracles will win (votes: 1 - 5.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 58.6% – 97%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +2 - Heracles (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Ajax (1.61) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Ajax (1.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 7 - 70%). Heracles (votes: 1 - 10%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jaros V. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 2. Rosa L. 15. Baas Y. 5. Wijndal O. 23. Berghuis S. (C) 28. Fitz-Jim K. 8. Taylor K. 7. Moro R. 25. Weghorst W. 10. Gloukh O.	1. de Keijzer F. (G) 3. Wieckhoff J. 4. Mirani D. (C) 24. Mesik I. 5. van der Kust D. 13. Zamburek J. 32. Scheperman S. 7. Limbombe B. 10. Bruns T. 17. van Gilst T. 19. Kulenovic L.
Substitutes
41. Alders G. 43. Bounida R. 9. Brobbey B. 17. Edvardsen O. 13. Kaplan A. 18. Klaassen D. 19. Konadu D. 24. Mokio J. 22. Pasveer R. (G) 6. Regeer Y. 52. Reverson P. (G) 37. Sutalo J.	2. Benita M. 21. Borges Sanches Y. 70. Hrustic A. 16. Jansink T. (G) 30. Mantel R. (G) 22. Milani L. 31. Satriano A. 23. te Wierik M. 27. Tijink J. 26. van Kaam D. 20. van Oorschot D.
Coaches
Heitinga J.	Sibum B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Mirani D. 🟨,
31', 1 - 0, Berghuis S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', Bruns T. ↓, Hrustic A. ↑,
63', Berghuis S. ↓, Klaassen D. ↑,
64', Gloukh O. ↓, Edvardsen O. ↑,
70', Zamburek J. 🟨,
73', van Gilst T. ↓, Borges Sanches Y. ↑,
74', Wieckhoff J. ↓, Benita M. ↑,
78', Moro R. ↓, Mokio J. ↑,
78', Gaaei A. ↓, Regeer Y. ↑,
78', Fitz-Jim K. ↓, Sutalo J. ↑,
85', Zamburek J. ↓, Satriano A. ↑,
85', Scheperman S. ↓, te Wierik M. ↑,
87', 2 - 0, Weghorst W. ⚽, Klaassen D. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 5.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Heracles may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ajax is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Ajax: Brobbey B. (Ankle Injury) Gooijer T. (Knee Injury) Sutalo J. (Ankle Injury) van den Boomen B. (Back Injury)

There will not play in Heracles: Cestic S. (Broken ankle) Reine-Adelaide J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Ajax: Alders G. (Injury) Bouwman A. (Injury) Itakura K. (Injury) Steur S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Heracles: Engels M. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 14 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 45:14. (average 2.3:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Ajax won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 28:5. (average 2.8:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
17.08.25	Go Ahead Eagles - Ajax	2:2 ✺
10.08.25	Ajax - Telstar	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
03.08.25	Ajax - Monaco	2:2 ✺
27.07.25	Como - Ajax	3:0 ✺
24.07.25	Ajax - Celtic	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TWTLW
- Heracles Almelo
Dutch Eredivisie
16.08.25	Heracles Almelo - NEC Nijmegen	1:4 ✺
10.08.25	Utrecht - Heracles Almelo	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Heracles Almelo - Waalwijk	3:1 ✺
18.07.25	Preußen Münster - Heracles Almelo	1:4 ✺
12.07.25	Heracles Almelo - Dender EH	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
16.02.25	Ajax - Heracles Almelo	4:0
20.10.24	Heracles Almelo - Ajax	3:4
27.01.24	Heracles Almelo - Ajax	2:4
12.08.23	Ajax - Heracles Almelo	4:1
06.02.22	Ajax - Heracles Almelo	3:0
30.10.21	Heracles Almelo - Ajax	0:0
13.02.21	Heracles Almelo - Ajax	0:2

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