Match Info

First League - Round 15

Date: 23 July 2026, Thursday


	Akademiya Ontustik		Astana 2

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.95	2.92
	2.03	3.6	2.62
	2.1	4.06	2.71	Watch
	1.94	3.85	2.85
	2.11	3.92	2.69	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.24)	3.88 ↓ (3.97)	2.76 ↑ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Akademiya Ontustik
44.3%

Draw
23.2%

Astana 2
32.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.8%

23%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

22%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Akademiya Ontustik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Astana 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Akademiya Ontustik than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Astana 2 than the current prediction. (+2%)

Akademiya Ontustik - Astana 2 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Tokenov T. ⚽, Amangeldinov R. (A),
36', Nurmukhambet N. 🟥,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', Erkinbay Z. 🟥,
83', 1 - 1, Nuraly B. ⚽,
90+3', 2 - 1, Ali A. ⚽, Dzhamalov B. (A),

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 and 4).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Akademiya Ontustik won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 1.8:1.4).

Including home match between the teams, Akademiya Ontustik won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Akademiya Ontustik	25	13	4	8	36:30	6	43
5	FC Astana 2	25	11	3	11	49:50	-1	36

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Akademiya Ontustik
Kazakh First League
17.07.26	Tobol 2 - Akademiya Ontustik	2:3 ✺
09.07.26	Akademiya Ontustik - Arys	1:2 ✺
02.07.26	Akademiya Ontustik - Shakhter Karagandy	1:2 ✺
25.06.26	Jaiyq - Akademiya Ontustik	0:1 ✺
18.06.26	Akademiya Ontustik - Yelimay 2	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WLLWT
- FC Astana 2
Kazakh First League
17.07.26	Astana 2 - Jaiyq	1:0 ✺
10.07.26	Yelimay 2 - Astana 2	2:1 ✺
02.07.26	Astana 2 - Kaspiy Aktau 2	6:1 ✺
26.06.26	Batyr Ekibastuz - Astana 2	1:1 ✺
18.06.26	Astana 2 - Kairat 2	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh First League
23.04.26	Astana 2 - Akademiya Ontustik	1:0
14.05.23	Astana 2 - Akademiya Ontustik	0:3
06.08.22	Akademiya Ontustik - Astana 2	5:3
30.04.22	Astana 2 - Akademiya Ontustik	2:1
28.09.19	Astana 2 - Akademiya Ontustik	1:0

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