Match Info

First League - Round 14

Date: 17 July 2026, Friday


	Tobol 2		Akademiya Ontustik

	1	X	2
	5.00	4.20	1.46
	5.9	4.55	1.39
	4.8	4.55	1.38
	7.04	4.49	1.37	Watch
	5.75	4.45	1.38
	8.68	4.7	1.33	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.2 ↑ (6.15)	4.49 ↓ (4.53)	1.39 ↑ (1.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tobol 2
14.6%

Draw
20.1%

Akademiya Ontustik
65.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.4%

19.6%

66%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14%

19.1%

67.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tobol 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Akademiya Ontustik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol 2 than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Akademiya Ontustik than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Tobol 2 - Akademiya Ontustik Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
23', 0 - 1, Ali A. ⚽, Dzhamalov B. (A),
25', 0 - 2, Ali A. ⚽, Nyshantay D. (A),
43', 0 - 3, Zhumadelov N. (Own goal),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
61', 1 - 3, Konyashkin Y. ⚽,
68', 2 - 3, Zhaksylyk N. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 14 in the zone Relegation and 5).

Tobol 2 is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Akademiya Ontustik has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Akademiya Ontustik is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tobol 2 won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Akademiya Ontustik	23	13	4	6	36:27	9	43
13	Tobol 2	23	4	4	15	40:57	-17	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tobol Kostanay 2
Kazakh First League
09.07.26	Jaiyq - Tobol 2	1:0 ✺
02.07.26	Tobol 2 - Aktobe 2	5:5 ✺
25.06.26	Kaspiy Aktau 2 - Tobol 2	2:1 ✺
18.06.26	Tobol 2 - Batyr Ekibastuz	3:3 ✺
12.06.26	Kairat 2 - Tobol 2	7:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LTLTL
- Akademiya Ontustik
Kazakh First League
09.07.26	Akademiya Ontustik - Arys	1:2 ✺
02.07.26	Akademiya Ontustik - Shakhter Karagandy	1:2 ✺
25.06.26	Jaiyq - Akademiya Ontustik	0:1 ✺
18.06.26	Akademiya Ontustik - Yelimay 2	1:1 ✺
11.06.26	Aktobe 2 - Akademiya Ontustik	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh First League
17.04.26	Akademiya Ontustik - Tobol 2	3:0

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