Match Info

First League - Round 26

Date: 22 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished


	Aktobe 2		Astana 2

	1	X	2
	2.45	4.20	2.10
	2.52	4.25	2.05
	2.48	4.69	2.1	Watch
	2.50	4.25	2.04
	2.42	4.30	2.10	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.32)	4.34 ↓ (4.53)	2.08 ↓ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aktobe 2
36.2%

Draw
20.7%

Astana 2
43.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.4%

19.6%

42%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

18.9%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aktobe 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Astana 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aktobe 2 than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Astana 2 than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
10', 0 - 1, Kaltanov A. ⚽,
15', 0 - 2, Amangeldinov R. ⚽,
24', 0 - 3, Akhmetov A. ⚽, Nurmukhambet N. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 3)
47', 1 - 3, Muratov D. ⚽, Usyk D. (A),
51', 2 - 3, Muratov D. (Penalty Awarded),
56', 2 - 4, Tolendi A. (Penalty Awarded),
68', 2 - 5, Vardanyan A. ⚽,
83', 3 - 5, Kenzhegulov A. ⚽,
90+2', 3 - 6, Amangeldinov R. ⚽, Akhmetov A. (A),

Preview

A lower-table team faces a stern test hosting a top-ranking contender (ranked 12th and 5th).

Aktobe 2 is on a difficult losing run (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Astana 2 is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Aktobe 2 has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:5 (averaging 3:1.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Aktobe 2 against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 4:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	FC Astana 2	26	12	3	11	55:53	2	39
12	Aktobe 2	26	6	6	14	46:81	-35	24

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Aktobe 2
Kazakh First League
15.10.26	Khan Tengri - Aktobe 2	2:1 ✺
08.10.26	Aktobe 2 - Tobol 2	4:4 ✺
17.09.26	Arys - Aktobe 2	4:1 ✺
10.09.26	Aktobe 2 - Turan Turkistan	1:3 ✺
03.09.26	Akademiya Ontustik - Aktobe 2	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LTLLL
- FC Astana 2
Kazakh First League
15.10.26	Astana 2 - Yelimay 2	7:1 ✺
08.10.26	Kaspiy Aktau 2 - Astana 2	6:0 ✺
18.09.26	Astana 2 - Batyr Ekibastuz	7:1 ✺
10.09.26	Kairat 2 - Astana 2	2:2 ✺
03.09.26	Astana 2 - Taraz	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh First League
03.04.26	Astana 2 - Aktobe 2	2:2
31.10.23	Aktobe 2 - Astana 2	4:1
07.04.23	Astana 2 - Aktobe 2	2:3

Aktobe 2 - Astana 2