Match Info

First League - Round 23

Date: 17 September 2026, Thursday


	Arys		Aktobe 2

	1	X	2
	1.88	3.85	3
	1.5	4.89	4.51	Watch
	1.88	3.9	3
	1.66	4.1	3.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.5)	4.19 ↓ (4.89)	3.58 ↓ (4.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arys
52.7%

Draw
21.8%

Aktobe 2
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61%

18.7%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.1%

18.1%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arys's form might have worsened.

Aktobe 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Aktobe 2's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arys than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arys, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aktobe 2 than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Aktobe 2, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Vaganov M. ⚽, Zhanbyrbay A. (A),
39', 2 - 0, Mansurov B. ⚽, Malikov B. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
74', 2 - 1, Begimov A. (Penalty Awarded),
80', 3 - 1, Zulypbek Z. ⚽, Begaly E. (A),
84', 4 - 1, Moldakarayev B. ⚽,

Preview

A direct clash near the foot of the table where neither side can afford to drop points (ranked 11th and 12th).

Arys is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by Aktobe 2 have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Arys carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Our forecast points to a victory for Arys in today's match, at odds of 1.73.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Arys has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:10 (averaging 1.8:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Arys against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 6:2 goals (averaging 3:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Arys	23	7	3	13	29:43	-14	24
12	Aktobe 2	23	6	5	12	38:69	-31	23

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arys
Kazakh First League
11.09.26	Kaspiy Aktau 2 - Arys	1:2 ✺
03.09.26	Arys - Batyr Ekibastuz	3:1 ✺
20.08.26	Arys - Taraz	1:1 ✺
15.08.26	Khan Tengri - Arys	0:0 ✺
31.07.26	Astana 2 - Arys	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WWTTL
- FC Aktobe 2
Kazakh First League
10.09.26	Aktobe 2 - Turan Turkistan	1:3 ✺
03.09.26	Akademiya Ontustik - Aktobe 2	2:1 ✺
28.08.26	Aktobe 2 - Jaiyq	1:0 ✺
20.08.26	Yelimay 2 - Aktobe 2	2:5 ✺
13.08.26	Aktobe 2 - Shakhter Karagandy	1:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh First League
25.06.26	Aktobe 2 - Arys	3:1
20.09.24	Aktobe 2 - Arys	0:1
07.10.23	Arys - Aktobe 2	2:1
30.06.23	Aktobe 2 - Arys	5:1

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