Match Info

First League - Round 24

Date: 8 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished


	Aktobe 2		Tobol 2

	1	X	2
	1.95	4.20	2.65
	2.00	4.89	2.57	Watch
	1.85	4.10	2.80
	1.98	4.89	2.60	Watch
	1.95	4.35	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (1.99)	4.49 ↓ (4.65)	2.63 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aktobe 2
46%

Draw
20%

Tobol 2
34%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.3%

19.4%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.1%

19.7%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aktobe 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Tobol 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aktobe 2 than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tobol 2 than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
5', 1 - 0, Begimov A. ⚽, Zheksenbay Z. (A),
31', 2 - 0, Muratov D. ⚽, Eleuov K. (A),
38', Zhumagaliev A. 🟥,
40', 2 - 1, Nurgeldinov N. (Penalty Awarded),
45', 2 - 2, Zinadin A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', 3 - 2, Eleuov K. ⚽, Begimov A. (A),
63', 3 - 3, Musaev E. ⚽,
86', 4 - 3, Arturovich H. ⚽, Zhanaev B. (A),
88', 4 - 4, Zinadin A. ⚽,
90+3', 🟥,

Preview

A dramatic battle between two struggling sides fighting for survival points (ranked 12th and 13th in the Relegation).

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Aktobe 2 has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:5.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Aktobe 2	26	6	6	14	46:81	-35	24
13	Tobol 2	26	6	5	15	51:64	-13	23

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Aktobe 2
Kazakh First League
17.09.26	Arys - Aktobe 2	4:1 ✺
10.09.26	Aktobe 2 - Turan Turkistan	1:3 ✺
03.09.26	Akademiya Ontustik - Aktobe 2	2:1 ✺
28.08.26	Aktobe 2 - Jaiyq	1:0 ✺
20.08.26	Yelimay 2 - Aktobe 2	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLLWW
- Tobol Kostanay 2
Kazakh First League
19.09.26	Tobol 2 - Kaspiy Aktau 2	1:0 ✺
11.09.26	Batyr Ekibastuz - Tobol 2	1:5 ✺
28.08.26	Taraz - Tobol 2	3:1 ✺
20.08.26	Tobol 2 - Khan Tengri	3:4 ✺
13.08.26	Astana 2 - Tobol 2	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 38.8 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh First League
02.07.26	Tobol 2 - Aktobe 2	5:5

Aktobe 2 - Tobol 2