Match Info

QSL - Round 8

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium (Doha)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Qatar	Shoof


	Al-Ahli Doha		Al-Gharafa

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.8	1.98
	3.3	4.07	1.92
	3.96	4.21	1.70	Watch
	3.32	3.68	1.97	Watch
	3.8	4.25	1.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.5 ↓ (3.8)	4 ↓ (4.25)	1.86 ↑ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Ahli Doha
26.6%

Draw
23.3%

Al-Gharafa
50.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.3%

21.7%

54%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.6%

21%

55.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Ahli Doha has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Al-Gharafa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Ahli Doha than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Gharafa than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Al-Gharafa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Al Ahli Doha - Al Gharafa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Naim Y. (C) 41. Mawla A. R. 16. Tihi R. 5. Mitrovic M. 12. Mohammed H. 6. Diallo I. 4. Ali T. 11. Moustafa A. 14. Vlap M. 7. Draxler J. 10. Exposito E.	1. Khalifa A. B. (G) 42. Sano S. 20. Jang Hyun-Soo 18. Al Oui A. 23. Fadlalla S. 14. Djalo A. 6. Traore D. 10. Al Ganehi A. 13. Sassi F. 8. Brahimi Y. (C) 9. Joselu
Substitutes
95. Al Nasr N. 88. Amraoui A. 35. Badredlin M. (G) 8. Fettouhi D. 20. Mansour H. 18. Mohammed J. 23. Radwan K. 9. Yansane S. 3. Yassine I.	26. Al-Ali R. A. 17. Boussafi R. 7. Coman F. 49. Faragalla R. 24. Gunnarsson A. 99. Hamed J. 27. Holgate M. 12. Ismaeil H. 21. Kahiout H. (G) 40. Lecomte C. (G) 3. Muntari M. 11. Surag A.
Coaches
Biscan I.	Martins P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Moustafa A. ↓, Al Nasr N. ↑,
33', Ali T. 🟨,
40', Traore D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Djalo A. ↓, Gunnarsson A. ↑,
47', 0 - 1, Sassi F. ⚽, Brahimi Y. (A),
59', 1 - 1, Draxler J. (Pen),
62', Traore D. ↓, Surag A. ↑,
62', Al Oui A. ↓, Muntari M. ↑,
62', 1 - 2, Sano S. ⚽, Brahimi Y. (A),
79', Joselu ↓, Coman F. ↑,
79', Exposito E. ↓, Fettouhi D. ↑,
79', Mitrovic M. ↓, Yansane S. ↑,
84', Mohammed H. ↓, Mansour H. ↑,
84', Ali T. ↓, Yassine I. ↑,
85', Yassine I. 🟨,
90', 1 - 3, Tihi R. (Own goal),
90+3', Brahimi Y. ↓, Boussafi R. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al-Ahli Doha won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Al-Gharafa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Al-Gharafa will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Al-Ahli Doha won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 22:37. (average 1.1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Al-Ahli Doha won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:22. (average 0.8:2.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Ahli Doha
AFC Champions League 2
22.10.25	Al-Ahli Doha - Arkadag	2:2 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
04.10.25	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Waab	0:1 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
01.10.25	Andijan - Al-Ahli Doha	0:0 ✺
Qatar QSL
26.09.25	Al-Shahania - Al-Ahli Doha	1:2 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
24.09.25	Lusail City - Al-Ahli Doha	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TLTWL
- Al-Gharafa SC
AFC Champions League
20.10.25	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Al-Gharafa	4:0 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
17.10.25	Al-Gharafa - Al-Sailiya	0:3 ✺
02.10.25	Al-Gharafa - Al-Khor	0:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
29.09.25	Al-Gharafa - Al-Shorta Baghdad	2:0 ✺
Qatar QSL
25.09.25	Al-Rayyan - Al-Gharafa	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Qatar QSL
22.01.25	Al-Gharafa - Al-Ahli Doha	2:0
18.08.24	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Gharafa	1:0
Qatar Emir Cup
08.05.24	Al-Gharafa - Al-Ahli Doha	4:3 ET
Qatar QSL
24.02.24	Al-Gharafa - Al-Ahli Doha	1:2
01.09.23	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Gharafa	1:4
03.03.23	Al-Gharafa - Al-Ahli Doha	1:1
31.08.22	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Gharafa	3:3

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