Match Info

UAE League - Round 17

Date: 20 February 2026, Friday

Location: Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium (Madinat Zayed)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Triller TV+


	Al Dhafra		Shabab Al-Ahli

	1	X	2
				Watch
	6.9	4.85	1.36	Watch
	7.03	5.09	1.35
	7.08	4.94	1.38	Watch
	6.5	4.5	1.36
	6.05	4.85	1.37
	7	4.75	1.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.76 ↓ (6.85)	4.83 ↓ (5.11)	1.36 (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al Dhafra
13.6%

Draw
19%

Shabab Al-Ahli
67.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.6%

18.2%

68.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.9%

17.3%

71.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Al Dhafra have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Shabab Al-Ahli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al Dhafra than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shabab Al-Ahli than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Al Dhafra - Shabab Al Ahli Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Shabab Al-Ahli (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Shabab Al-Ahli (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Shabab Al-Ahli (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
44. Al Sayed A. (G) 15. Al Karbi A. 3. Serafim 13. Rabja M. 27. Idrees A. 29. Bayesh I. 9. Jobson 21. Djooh R. 11. El Khaloui M. 99. Marcelinho 33. El Berkaoui K. (C)	22. Al Meqebaali H. (G) 75. Mateus Henrique 4. Planic B. (C) 25. Gomes I. 31. Kauan Santos 88. Maksimovic N. 6. Ezatolahi S. 18. Al Mansouri M. 80. Breno 77. Guilherme 21. Adil S.
Substitutes
5. Al Harbi M. 26. Al Marzouqi Y. 24. Al Zaabi S. 20. Amesimeku L. 18. Ayman Y. 10. Ibrahim K. 8. Mohammed Z. 4. Saleh F. 17. Soussi A. 30. Sultan A. (G) 31. Vittor Moura	1. Al Menhali R. (G) 26. Al Nuaimi E. 20. Azmoun S. 79. Joao Marcelo 15. Kaiky 55. Maqdami R. (G) 16. Rikelme
Coaches
Petrovic Z.	Sousa P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
9', 0 - 1, Al Mansouri M. ⚽, Breno (A),
15', Rabja M. 🟨,
26', Rabja M. ↓, Al Marzouqi Y. ↑,
33', Kauan Santos 🟨,
45+1', Djooh R. 🟨,
45+5', 0 - 2, Ezatolahi S. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
61', Mateus Henrique ↓, Kaiky ↑,
61', Kauan Santos ↓, Rikelme ↑,
67', 0 - 3, Guilherme ⚽, Rikelme (A),
71', Jobson 🟨,
74', 0 - 4, Breno ⚽, Adil S. (A),
75', Adil S. ↓, Azmoun S. ↑,
75', Ezatolahi S. ↓, Al Nuaimi E. ↑,
77', 0 - 5, Al Mansouri M. ⚽, Azmoun S. (A),
78', Jobson ↓, Ibrahim K. ↑,
78', Djooh R. ↓, Al Harbi M. ↑,
79', Marcelinho ↓, Mohammed Z. ↑,
81', Breno ↓, Joao Marcelo ↑,
85', El Khaloui M. ↓, Soussi A. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al Dhafra won 1.

Al Dhafra has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Shabab Al-Ahli is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Shabab Al-Ahli is the obvious favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Al Dhafra won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 15:30. (average 0.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Al Dhafra won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 9:19. (average 0.8:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Al Dhafra	5	1	0	4	3:9	-6	3

Last Results with these Odds

Shabab Al-Ahli - the odds 1.36 are the expected chance of winning is 68.27%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al Dhafra
UAE Football League
13.02.26	Al Bataeh - Al Dhafra	1:1 ✺
06.02.26	Al Dhafra - Khor Fakkan	2:3 ✺
28.01.26	Al Dhafra - Al-Sharjah	0:2 ✺
19.01.26	Ajman Club - Al Dhafra	1:1 ✺
08.01.26	Al Dhafra - Al Ain	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TLLTL
- Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
AFC Champions League
16.02.26	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Shabab Al-Ahli	4:3 ✺
09.02.26	Shabab Al-Ahli - Al-Hilal	0:0 ✺
UAE Football League
05.02.26	Al-Sharjah - Shabab Al-Ahli	1:4 ✺
UAE Presidents Cup
01.02.26	Shabab Al-Ahli - Khor Fakkan	3:1 ✺
UAE Football League
28.01.26	Ajman Club - Shabab Al-Ahli	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

UAE Football League
16.08.25	Shabab Al-Ahli - Al Dhafra	2:0
14.02.23	Shabab Al-Ahli - Al Dhafra	2:0
02.10.22	Al Dhafra - Shabab Al-Ahli	3:2
17.05.22	Al Dhafra - Shabab Al-Ahli	0:1
26.12.21	Shabab Al-Ahli - Al Dhafra	1:0
UAE Presidents Cup
22.12.21	Al Dhafra - Shabab Al-Ahli	0:1
UAE Football League
20.03.21	Al Dhafra - Shabab Al-Ahli	1:2

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