Match Info

AFC Champions League - League phase - Round 4

Date: 3 November 2025, Monday

Location: Thani bin Jassim Stadium (Doha)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI, Migu, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 4
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 3 North
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Russia	TV Start
South-korea	Coupang Play
Suriname	SCCN
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
Ukraine	Sport 3
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Al-Gharafa		Al-Hilal

	1	X	2
				Watch
	7.9	5.7	1.28
	18.87	9.68	1.09	Watch
	8.75	5.93	1.31	Watch
	8.43	6.03	1.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	10.99 ↑ (6.2)	6.84 ↑ (4.5)	1.23 ↓ (1.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Gharafa
8.7%

Draw
14%

Al-Hilal
77.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.2%

20.9%

63.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.9%

20.5%

65%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Gharafa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Al-Gharafa's form might have worsened.

Al-Hilal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Al-Hilal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Gharafa than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Al-Gharafa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Hilal than the current prediction. (-12.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Al-Hilal, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	12.5%	87.5%

Al Gharafa - Al Hilal Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Al-Hilal (1.76) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Al-Hilal will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Al-Hilal will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Hilal (votes: 9 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Khalifa A. B. (G) 27. Holgate M. (C) 20. Jang Hyun-Soo 42. Sano S. 11. Surag A. 13. Sassi F. 29. Diaz F. 23. Fadlalla S. 14. Djalo A. 7. Coman F. 99. Hamed J.	37. Bono (G) 20. Cancelo J. 3. Koulibaly K. 78. Lajami A. 4. Akcicek Y. 8. Neves R. (C) 28. Kanno M. 19. Hernandez T. 11. Kaio Cesar 99. Al Hamdan A. 29. Al Dawsari S.
Substitutes
33. Abdulnasir C. 26. Al-Ali R. A. 10. Al Ganehi A. 18. Al Oui A. 17. Boussafi R. 24. Gunnarsson A. 12. Ismaeil H. 21. Kahiout H. (G) 40. Lecomte C. (G) 6. Traore D.	16. Al Dawsari N. 24. Al Harbi M. 89. Al Malki A. 15. Al Qahtani M. 17. Al Rubaie M. (G) 88. Al Yami H. 39. Al-Zaid M. 14. Darisi A. 9. Marcos Leonardo 25. Patouillet M. (G) 21. Radif A.
Coaches
Martins P.	Inzaghi S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Al Dawsari S. ⚽, Cancelo J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', Fadlalla S. ↓, Al Ganehi A. ↑,
62', Sano S. 🟨,
66', 0 - 2, Kaio Cesar ⚽, Hernandez T. (A),
71', Sassi F. ↓, Al Oui A. ↑,
71', Surag A. ↓, Gunnarsson A. ↑,
74', Al Dawsari S. ↓, Marcos Leonardo ↑,
74', Cancelo J. ↓, Al Yami H. ↑,
75', Coman F. ↓, Boussafi R. ↑,
79', Marcos Leonardo 🟨,
80', Neves R. ↓, Al Malki A. ↑,
87', Kaio Cesar ↓, Darisi A. ↑,
87', Al Hamdan A. ↓, Radif A. ↑,
90+8', 1 - 2, Al Oui A. ⚽, Djalo A. (A),

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Al-Gharafa has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Al-Hilal is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Al-Hilal may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Al-Hilal is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Al-Gharafa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1).

Including home match between the teams, Al-Gharafa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Gharafa SC
Qatar QSL
30.10.25	Al-Gharafa - Al Duhail	3:1 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
27.10.25	Al-Gharafa - Al-Shamal	0:1 ✺
Qatar QSL
25.10.25	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Gharafa	1:3 ✺
AFC Champions League
20.10.25	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Al-Gharafa	4:0 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
17.10.25	Al-Gharafa - Al-Sailiya	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLWLL
- Al-Hilal Riyadh
Saudi Professional League
31.10.25	Al-Hilal - Al-Shabab Riyadh	1:0 ✺
Saudi King Cup
28.10.25	Al Akhdoud - Al-Hilal	0:1 ✺
Saudi Professional League
24.10.25	Al-Ittihad Jeddah - Al-Hilal	0:2 ✺
AFC Champions League
21.10.25	Al-Hilal - Al-Sadd	3:1 ✺
Saudi Professional League
18.10.25	Al-Ettifaq Dammam - Al-Hilal	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
03.12.24	Al-Hilal - Al-Gharafa	3:0
15.05.12	Al-Hilal - Al-Gharafa	N/A

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