Match Info

QSL - Round 10

Date: 21 November 2025, Friday

Location: Thani bin Jassim Stadium (Doha)

Referee: Al Athbah A. (Qat)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Qatar	Shoof


	Al-Gharafa		Al-Wakrah

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.3	3.6	2.62
	2.15	3.92	2.88
	2.12	4.02	2.81	Watch
	2.29	3.4	2.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (2.12)	3.74 ↓ (4.02)	2.74 ↓ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Gharafa
41.6%

Draw
24.7%

Al-Wakrah
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

23.1%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

22.8%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Gharafa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Al-Wakrah has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Gharafa than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Wakrah than the current prediction. (-1%)

Al Gharafa - Al Wakrah Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Gharafa (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Al-Gharafa (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Gharafa (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Khalifa A. B. (G) 42. Sano S. 18. Al Oui A. 6. Traore D. 23. Fadlalla S. 24. Gunnarsson A. 29. Diaz F. 99. Hamed J. 13. Sassi F. 8. Brahimi Y. (C) 14. Djalo A.	22. Al Khater S. (G) 16. Erfan N. 28. Lucas Verissimo 2. Lucas Mendes (C) 47. Waad F. 18. Madibo A. O. 8. Fathy H. 40. Valentin G. 75. Zouhzouh A. 7. Assal A. 11. Berkane R.
Substitutes
33. Abdulnasir C. 26. Al-Ali R. A. 57. Al Khilif Y. 17. Boussafi R. 7. Coman F. 49. Faragalla R. 27. Holgate M. 21. Kahiout H. (G) 80. Ktit Z. 40. Lecomte C. (G) 3. Muntari M. 11. Surag A.	13. Abdurisag Y. 99. Abudlla O. (G) 4. Aiash M. 27. Alaaeldin M. 24. Al Hajri S. 15. Ali A. 14. Al Muhaza T. 9. de Tomas R. 5. Fadel A. 10. Gelson Dala 17. Khaled M. 6. Salah O.
Coaches
Martins P.	Moreno V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', Sano S. 🟨,
28', Valentin G. ↓, Gelson Dala ↑,
34', 1 - 0, Brahimi Y. (Pen),
45+13', Sassi F. ↓, Surag A. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Hamed J. ↓, Muntari M. ↑,
49', Madibo A. O. 🟨,
54', Erfan N. 🟨,
62', Zouhzouh A. ↓, de Tomas R. ↑,
63', Fadlalla S. ↓, Al-Ali R. A. ↑,
86', Erfan N. ↓, Alaaeldin M. ↑,
87', Assal A. ↓, Abdurisag Y. ↑,
88', Djalo A. ↓, Coman F. ↑,
90+5', Brahimi Y. ↓, Boussafi R. ↑,
90+6', Fathy H. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: ) and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al-Gharafa won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Al-Gharafa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Al-Gharafa has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Al-Gharafa won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 36:29. (average 1.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Al-Gharafa won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:11. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Gharafa SC
Qatar QSL Cup
14.11.25	Al Duhail - Al-Gharafa	1:0 ✺
Qatar QSL
07.11.25	Al-Gharafa - Qatar SC	2:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
03.11.25	Al-Gharafa - Al-Hilal	1:2 ✺
Qatar QSL
30.10.25	Al-Gharafa - Al Duhail	3:1 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
27.10.25	Al-Gharafa - Al-Shamal	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWLWL
- Al-Wakrah SC
Qatar QSL Cup
16.11.25	Umm-Salal - Al-Wakrah	3:1 ✺
11.11.25	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Wakrah	2:2 ✺
Qatar QSL
07.11.25	Al-Shamal - Al-Wakrah	2:2 ✺
31.10.25	Al-Wakrah - Qatar SC	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	Al-Wakrah - Al-Rayyan	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Qatar QSL
11.04.25	Al-Wakrah - Al-Gharafa	1:1
22.11.24	Al-Gharafa - Al-Wakrah	3:1
Qatar QSL Cup
06.09.24	Al-Gharafa - Al-Wakrah	0:3
Qatar QSL
24.04.24	Al-Wakrah - Al-Gharafa	2:4
02.12.23	Al-Gharafa - Al-Wakrah	1:1
Club Friendly
09.08.23	Al-Gharafa - Al-Wakrah	1:0
Qatar QSL
04.02.23	Al-Wakrah - Al-Gharafa	0:4

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