Match Info

Stars League - Round 32

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday


	Al Mosul		Al-Gharraf

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.05	4.05
	1.83	3.09	4.1
	1.85	3.2	4.14	Watch
	1.91	2.8	4
	1.86	3.05	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (2.16)	3.04 ↑ (3)	4.11 ↑ (3.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al Mosul
48.4%

Draw
29.6%

Al-Gharraf
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

31.1%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

28.5%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al Mosul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Al Mosul's performance.

Al-Gharraf has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al Mosul than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Al Mosul that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Gharraf than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Al-Gharraf could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Al Mosul - Al Gharraf Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Saad M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
66', Khaled A. 🟥,
90+8', 1 - 1, Ibrahim D. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 12 and 14).

Recent performances by Al Mosul have been up and down (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Al-Gharraf's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Al-Gharraf may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Al Mosul is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Al Mosul	9	2	2	5	9:15	-6	8
19	Al Gharraf	8	1	2	5	4:12	-8	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al Mosul SC
Iraqi Premier League
22.04.26	Al Mosul - Al-Naft	0:0 ✺
17.04.26	Al Mosul - Amanat Baghdad	1:1 ✺
13.04.26	Naft Maysan - Al Mosul	1:1 ✺
09.04.26	Arbil - Al Mosul	2:2 ✺
03.04.26	Al Mosul - Al-Karkh	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TTTTL
- Al-Gharraf SC
Iraqi Premier League
28.04.26	Al-Gharraf - Al-Minaa	0:1 ✺
23.04.26	Duhok - Al-Gharraf	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Al-Gharraf - Al-Talaba	1:3 ✺
14.04.26	Al-Qasim - Al-Gharraf	1:5 ✺
09.04.26	Al-Naft - Al-Gharraf	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LTLWL

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