Match Info

MEXICO: Liga Premier Serie A - Clausura - Round 10

Date: 14 March 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Francisco Zarco (Durango)


	Alacranes de Durango		Real Apodaca

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.7	4.2
	1.64	3.75	4.5
	1.7	3.56	4.35
	1.63	3.88	4.62	Watch
	1.69	3.77	4.71	Watch
	1.64	3.75	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (2.07)	3.74 ↑ (3.2)	4.48 ↑ (3.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alacranes de Durango
55.2%

Draw
24.4%

Real Apodaca
20.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.9%

28.4%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

27.9%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alacranes de Durango has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alacranes de Durango's performance.

Real Apodaca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Apodaca might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alacranes de Durango than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alacranes de Durango that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Apodaca than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Apodaca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Alacranes de Durango - Real Apodaca Predictions

Users Predictions: Alacranes de Durango will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
70', 1 - 0, Ocon J. ⚽,
75', 2 - 0, Ontiveros J. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Premier Serie A (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Premier Serie A (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

Alacranes de Durango could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Real Apodaca have a series of home games.

Alacranes de Durango will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Alacranes de Durango won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:2 (average 2:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Alacranes de Durango won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:1 (average 1:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alacranes de Durango
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
07.03.25	Cimarrones de Sonora - Alacranes de Durango	0:0 ✺
28.02.25	Alacranes de Durango - Tecos FC	0:0 ✺
17.02.25	Alacranes de Durango - Mineros de Fresnillo	4:2 ✺
08.02.25	Mexicali - Alacranes de Durango	0:1 ✺
01.02.25	Los Cabos United - Alacranes de Durango	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TTWWW
- Real Apodaca
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
09.03.25	Real Apodaca - Leones Negros 2	3:1 ✺
23.02.25	Real Apodaca - Tritones Vallarta	1:0 ✺
15.02.25	Tigres de Álica - Real Apodaca	1:2 ✺
09.02.25	Real Apodaca - Los Cabos United	1:3 ✺
02.02.25	Real Apodaca - Cimarrones de Sonora	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.3 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
29.11.24	Alacranes de Durango - Real Apodaca	1:1
03.11.24	Real Apodaca - Alacranes de Durango	1:4
16.02.24	Alacranes de Durango - Real Apodaca	1:0
17.09.23	Real Apodaca - Alacranes de Durango	0:2

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