The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Alania Vladikavkaz 27%
Draw 30.2%
Chernomorets Novorossiysk 42.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
36.8%
29.4%
33.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
38.2%
30.5%
32.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alania Vladikavkaz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alania Vladikavkaz's form might have worsened.
Chernomorets Novorossiysk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chernomorets Novorossiysk's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alania Vladikavkaz than the current prediction. (+11.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alania Vladikavkaz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chernomorets Novorossiysk than the current prediction. (-10.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chernomorets Novorossiysk, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
1. Soldatenko R. (G) 5. Bagaev A. 19. Butaev A. 11. Chochiev A. 37. Gagloev T. 8. Khugaev A. 77. Kokoev D. 3. Pliev K. 2. Tataev A. 18. Toboev T. 15. Tsallagov I. (C)
1. Frolkin D. (G) 2. Cherov V. 35. Enin I. (C) 27. Gurchenko D. 21. Ivanov E. 30. Krasilnichenko O. 57. Krotov V. 64. Lanin O. 69. Rodionov I. 5. Stezhko V. 9. Uridia M.
Substitutes
9. Abdokov N. 70. Daurov R. 12. Gubiev E. 58. Isik M. 10. Khadartsev B. 27. Makarov S. 22. Moskalenchik I. 76. Nafikov V. 23. Natabashvili G. (G) 6. Tarba Z. 13. Zaseev A.
13. Akbashev R. 7. Antonov A. 40. Bezchasnyuk A. 44. Chichinadze A. 6. Fishchenko R. 17. Fomin D. 4. Kumburovic N. 3. Musalov M. 23. Nikiforov N. 22. Rebrov D. (G) 19. Tegues D.
Coaches
Gogniev S.
Vasilenko O.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
6', Khugaev A. 🟨,
11', Fishchenko R. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Gagloev T. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Uridia M. ↓, Chichinadze A. ↑,
46', Rodionov I. ↓, Fishchenko R. ↑,
46', Gurchenko D. ↓, Akbashev R. ↑,
46', Chochiev A. ↓, Nafikov V. ↑,
56', Krotov V. 🟨,
63', Toboev T. ↓, Moskalenchik I. ↑,
64', Kokoev D. ↓, Abdokov N. ↑,
71', Krasilnichenko O. ↓, Antonov A. ↑,
73', Gagloev T. ↓, Khadartsev B. ↑,
79', Ivanov E. ↓, Nikiforov N. ↑,
83', Khugaev A. ↓, Tarba Z. ↑,
87', 2 - 0, Nafikov V. ⚽,
90+4', Chichinadze A. 🟨,
Preview
This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 15 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (Promotion: )).
Recent matches Alania is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Chernomorets is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
Chernomorets will have a small advantage in this match.
Last 4 head-to-head matches Alania won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4:5 (average 1:1.3).
Including matches at home between the teams Alania won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:4 (average 1:2).
Watch
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Soldatenko R. (G) 
Uridia M. 
Moskalenchik I. 
Kumburovic N. 
Tegues D. 
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