Match Info

FNL - Round 14

Date: 12 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Volgograd Arena (Volgograd)

Referee: Zakharov I. (Rus)


	Rotor		Chernomorets Novorossiysk

	1	X	2
	2.11	2.98	4.33
	2.12	3.07	4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.15)	3.03 (3.03)	4.17 ↑ (3.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rotor
45.3%

Draw
31.7%

Chernomorets Novorossiysk
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.9%

31.1%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.1%

33.4%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rotor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Chernomorets Novorossiysk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rotor than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chernomorets Novorossiysk than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Rotor - Chernomorets Novorossiysk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Chagrov N. (G) 11. Kleshchenko A. 97. Pokidyshev N. 2. Korotkov A. 80. Bardybakhin V. 24. Maltsev M. 6. Makarov S. 33. Arbuzov Y. 10. Simonyan A. 7. Safronov I. 70. Khokhlachev A.	73. Shtepa M. (G) 13. Puzanov S. 3. Pliev Z. 4. Kirsch I. 18. Nikolaev O. 99. Morozov K. 8. Tarba Z. 7. Antonov A. 10. Zhigulev I. 9. Aliev S. 69. Rodionov I.
Substitutes
37. Fomin D. 18. Kaynov M. 34. Khramtsov M. 23. Lavrishchev D. 77. Sasin D. 28. Semenov A. 17. Shilnikov G. 5. Shumskikh A. 3. Shvetsov M. 50. Sugrobov V. (G)	11. Gurchenko D. 31. Kasimov T. 5. Krachkovskii A. 44. Kukharchuk I. 25. Lozhkin V. 32. Matyusha M. (G) 81. Tonevitskiy E. 77. Zarypbekov E. 17. Zhilkin G.
Coaches
Boyarintsev D.	Evseev V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Bardybakhin V. 🟨,
28', Nikolaev O. 🟨,
43', Rodionov I. ↓, Zhilkin G. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Pokidyshev N. ↓, Fomin D. ↑,
53', 1 - 0, Maltsev M. ⚽,
60', Aliev S. ↓, Kukharchuk I. ↑,
60', Tarba Z. ↓, Zarypbekov E. ↑,
60', Antonov A. ↓, Lozhkin V. ↑,
62', Fomin D. 🟨,
66', Simonyan A. ↓, Kaynov M. ↑,
67', Khokhlachev A. ↓, Lavrishchev D. ↑,
68', 🟨,
70', Puzanov S. ↓, Kasimov T. ↑,
81', Maltsev M. ↓, Sasin D. ↑,
82', 2 - 0, Kaynov M. ⚽,
83', Arbuzov Y. ↓, Aznaurov I. ↑,
90+3', 🟨,
90+3', Fomin D. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rotor won 1.

Recent performances by Rotor have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Chernomorets is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Rotor has had a series of away games.

Rotor is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Rotor won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:6. (average 1.1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Rotor won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rotor Volgograd
Russian FNL
05.10.25	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Rotor	0:0 ✺
28.09.25	Shinnik - Rotor	2:0 ✺
Russian Cup
24.09.25	Veles Moscow - Rotor	2:1 ✺
Russian FNL
20.09.25	Ural - Rotor	0:0 ✺
14.09.25	Rotor - KAMAZ	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TLLTW
- Chernomorets Novorossiysk
Russian FNL
05.10.25	Torpedo Moscow - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:4 ✺
29.09.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - KAMAZ	1:0 ✺
Russian Cup
24.09.25	Astrakhan - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	0:2 ✺
Russian FNL
21.09.25	SKA Khabarovsk - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:0 ✺
15.09.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Chayka Peschanokopskoye	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
13.04.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Rotor	1:1
20.09.24	Rotor - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:2
Russian FNL 2 Group 1
21.05.23	Rotor - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	2:1
25.03.23	Rotor - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	0:0
18.09.22	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Rotor	0:0
Club Friendly
05.02.18	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Rotor	1:2
23.06.17	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Rotor	0:2

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